The 2018 Keeneland September Sale represented change in more ways than the obvious maximizing of book one to four days, the entire first week of the sale, in reality putting book one and book two together, shortening the number of entries sold per day, and even beginning the sale at one o’clock because of the torrential rain in the weekend preceding the sale, which inhibited buyers’ ability to examine the select yearlings. It would appear that 2018 reveals a shift in the tectonic plates of the yearling market, with new stars emerging and energizing both the averages and the total amount of receipts to Keeneland. There would seem to be a belief in the future of thoroughbred racing once more.
First, we need to examine the book one results from last year’s September sale. The top ten sires, by receipts accrued, were utterly predictable: Tapit, War Front, Medaglia d’Oro, Pioneer of the Nile, Scat Daddy, Speightstown, Candy Ride, Giant’s Causeway, Hard Spun, and Kitten’s Joy. Not a single freshman sire appeared among them—there was no new sire igniting the hopes and dreams of buyers with promises of potential. The list really did represent all the usual suspects. Scat Daddy had died, so this was his ultimate crop. Hard Spun was the youngest sire on the top ten list, and seemed an anomaly though his yearlings looked the part, even if his production didn’t entirely support his inclusion in this elite company. Uncle Mo, advertised as “the hottest young sire on the planet,” still had naysayers and disbelievers—could a son of Indian Charlie really be a top sire, or was he a flash in the pan? Anyone who had seen him would surely become a believer, as he exemplifies studly handsomeness, in size, musculature, gaze. He knocks your eyes out. But still—Indian Charlie?
2018’s book one shook everything up. The leading sire was Medaglia d’Oro, selling 31 yearlings for an average of $625,645, for a total of over $19 million dollars. Some of this was due to Godolphin’s unwavering support of their star stallion, but the rest of the market seemed to agree, and bidding competition was fierce for the top lots by Medaglia d’Oro. But second on the list was the stuff dreams are made of: American Pharoah, with his first crop of yearlings, with 37 selling, for an average of $466, 757, for a total of over $17 million. Perhaps because it’s been so long since we had a triple crown winner, but as an inveterate student of yearling sales, I can’t remember a year when a freshman sire cracked the top ten, let alone made it to second place.
In third was the abovementioned Uncle Mo, finally getting his just rewards for his achievements as a sire. 40 of his yearlings sold, for an average of just over $422,000, and an average of $16,890,000. His top lots have routinely sold well at two-year-old in training sales, where they work fast, but trickle down economics has finally worked with his yearlings. In fourth place was last year’s first place stallion, Tapit. It’s hard to explain why this fall from grace occurred—was this crop simply not as good as previous ones, or was there too much competition from other stallions in the marketplace?
The real stand out, in terms of average, was War Front—everyone wanted one, or two, or even three. His 18 yearlings sold averaged $782,400, for a total of over $14 million dollars, and bidding seemed fiercest for those War Front offspring the market deemed perfect. Coolmore’s unwavering support of the offspring of this stallion was challenged by Godolphin, Larry Best, Phoenix, and other big buyers.
Now for the deserving newcomers to the top ten list: Curlin and Into Mischief, who both had breakthrough years as stallions, and deserved their new superstardom in the yearling market. They displaced Speightstown and Candy Ride, and even old faithful (now deceased) Giant’s Causeway. Pioneer of the Nile was next, having dropped a few notches from his fourth place finish in yearling sales last year (partially due to the popularity of his triple crown winning son), and then more surprises: Quality Road, a superstar in the making, at ninth, and Empire Maker, with his first crop after his return from Japan, in tenth place. I must mention that in eleventh place came my previously accoladed Honor Code, whose first day surge continued throughout book one.
The strength and health of the yearling market, though we remain at the very top of the market and haven’t descended into the much more problematic middle and lower market, cannot be disputed. The fact that young stallions are climbing up the list at the top indicates a buoyancy and a belief in the future that will undoubtedly continue at least through book two. Then the strength of the market will reveal its true self, when the top stallions’ offspring give way to the get of others. There will no doubt be some surprises, and I, for one, can’t wait to see them. It is wonderful, however, to see young blood being appreciated, and a variety of blood—the A.P. Indy line, the Storm Cat line, the Danzig line, the Unbridled line, the Mr. Prospector line, and yes, even Indian Charlie—giving the market breadth and depth.
— Roberta Smoodin
The first day of Keeneland September usually demonstrates that nobody knows anything. Consignors, unsure about the market, set reserves too high and end up bringing yearlings home, no doubt to unhappy owners. Buyers know just as little, and wait to put their hands up in the pavilion, thinking the market will stabilize, find its own comfort zone, after day one, so that they will get their dollar’s worth. With a 35% buy back rate (25% is considered high), the first day of the epic Keeneland September Sale of 2018 demonstrates that the usual suspects with the deepest pockets – Godolphin, Coolmore, Don Alberto Stables – fear not, and plunge right into the competition for the best. There is much to be learned from day one, however.
Saturday, September 9, was officially Spendthrift Farm Day. Missed the memo? Not to worry – Spendthrift goes on innovating, with its fabulous cast of young stallions and its ways of getting breeders involved with them, getting them large books of mares to make them competitive and commercial. Mr. Hughes, the owner of Spendthrift, has done more for the little guy breeder than any other farm owner, so it’s only right that he should reap the rewards. And the rewards were plentiful on September 9.
Sophomore sire Orb didn’t make many waves as a freshman sire, but his career has now made a big splash with his first graded stakes winner, two-year-old Sippican Harbor, becoming the longshot winner of the Spinaway S.-G1 at Saratoga on Saturday, September 1. With only 83 starters, Orb now boasts 33 winners, but clearly Sippican Harbor is the belle of this ball, moving her sire up to number 12 on the second crop sires list. Sippican Harbor’s record is now three starts and two wins, for earnings of $242,650.
It’s Bob Baffert’s and Mike Smith’s world – the rest of us are just lucky to be citizens of it. On Travers S.-G1 day, August 25, the so-called undercard featured two grade one races for fillies and mares, the Personal Ensign S. and the Ballerina S., and both were won by the dynamic duo who might as well be Batman and Robin given their unbeatable heroism. Gritty Abel Tasman (Quality Road) won the Personal Ensign with her trademark battle down to the wire, for the second year in a row, and despite an objection and inquiry. It was the most thrilling race of the day, easily. Abel Tasman has now banked $2,787, 385.
These stellar fillies represent two stallions who are shining stars this year, and whose offspring are showing up and winning at a phenomenal pace: Quality Road, who stands at Lane’s End for $70,000, up from $25,000 last year, and Blame, who stands at Claiborne Farm for a mere $12,500. It is also well worth noting that in this era of multi-million-dollar partnerships for the cream of the yearling and two-year-old crops at sales, Abel Tasman was sent through the Keeneland September Sale and went unpurchased, bought back for $65,000.
If you are a race horse owner, you know that the highs make you feel like your brain is going to explode, and the lows break your heart, over and over. My own race filly just broke her maiden, and made me the happiest person on earth for a day. August 18, the low happened – millionaire, champion, and multiple grade one winning four-year-old Unique Bella fractured a sesamoid in training and was retired.
On a Saturday racing card that was owned, it seemed, by the usual suspects (Tapit, Medaglia d’Oro, War Front, Curlin, etc.) in two-year-old races, the sixth at Saratoga stood out because it was a maiden special weight won by Code of Honor, by a length and a half, a son of first crop stallion Noble Mission. Noble Mission is a full brother to another wonder horse, the legendary Frankel, and he stands at Lane’s End. Code of Honor was his fifth winner, and won at first asking, at six furlongs on the dirt. His Dixie Union dam undoubtedly brings the dirt influence to his otherwise grass pedigree, but what is most interesting is that he is owned and bred by W.S. Farish, Mr. Lane’s End himself.




In a weekend full of racing action, one colt stood out – Instagrand, winner of August 11th’s Best Pal S.- G2 at Del Mar. Frequently cynical racing commentators felt their blood pressure rise, and utilized the ultimate compliment when describing him -“freak.” Indeed, he had that man among boys look to him that we’ve become accustomed to seeing in Justify, that aura of professionalism one rarely sees in two-year-olds and that very masculine handsomeness.
Lawyer Ron, a son of Langfuhr, makes an interesting broodmare sire when coupled with Into Mischief. Through his sire, he brings the aforementioned Danzig, and also a dose of My Babu, which blends beautifully with the Turn-to in Into Mischief’s pedigree, through Stop the Music. But there’s more: Lawyer Ron’s dam, Donation, was by Lord Avie, which adds that essential extra line back to Secretariat’s great dam, Somethingroyal, through her other important son, Sir Gaylord, the sire of Lord Gaylord. Here is where the magic happens. Lord Gaylord is out of the Ambiorix mare Miss Glamour Gal. Ambiorix, bred so similarly to both Turn-to and My Babu, creates the triumvirate of inbreeding that coalesces to make an unusually high percentage of stakes winners. Ambiorix’s dam, Lavendula, is also the second dam of both My Babu and Turn-to.
Justify, undefeated winner of the 2018 Triple Crown, has been retired from racing, it was announced today.
North America has a new leading freshman sire: Uncaptured. Who? The unlikely leader is by Lion Heart (who?), a son of Tale of the Cat, not exactly a famed branch of the Storm Cat line in terms of producing sires. Millionaire earner Uncaptured was Canadian Horse of the Year and Two-Year Old Champion, the first horse since Deputy Minister to have that distinction, and was a multiple graded stakes winner at two. But no one expected this relatively unheralded young stud to surpass Goldencents on the leading freshman sires list.