Thoroughbredpeople.com

Say you had squirreled away four and a half million dollars somehow, and decided to buy the best mare your money could get you. The 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale and day one of Keeneland’s November Sale offered opportunity galore, in the glorious presences of Stopchargingmaria, Lady Eli, and My Miss Sophia. I’m not ignoring the staggering price paid for Lady Aurelia by Barbara Banke at Fasig, $7,500,000, but the fact that she was buying out a partner indicates that she was paying only fifty to seventy-five cents on the dollar, in all probability. As we will never know the real price paid by Banke of Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, and because Lady Aurelia is such a collector’s item with deep personal meaning for Ms. Banke, leaving her out of the four-million-dollar question seems to make sense.

Stopchargingmaria was acquired by Mandy Pope for $4.4million. Pope seems to have an endless desire for Tapit’s offspring, and the fact that this mare was in foal to him on an early cover certainly increased her value (Pope also bought her weanling filly by Pioneer of the Nile for $1.9million). A winner of over three million dollars, via her path through winning such Grade One races as the Alabama S., the CCA Oaks, and the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Stopchargingmaria must be considered an important mare, and she was absolutely gorgeous in the ring. By Tale of the Cat, the only pedigree knock on her (and one must search hard) is that her broodmare sire is Montbrook, rather undistinguished.

When Lady Eli went through the Keeneland sales ring, she had the regal gravitas of queens and goddesses, which agreed with earlier assessments of her personality: she tolerates humans, as if they are beneath her, and is always all business. John Sikura of Hill ‘n’ Dale, Lexington, acquired her for $4.2million, and felt lucky to get her, as he was sure she should have brought more. In foal to War Front, that hottest of sires at this year’s sales, the auctioneer’s cliché of “she looks the part” feels appropriate here. Though her sire, Divine Park, has been sent to Korea after his stud career, with the exception of Lady Eli, failed to take off, her dams’ side, with Saint Ballado and Green Dancer as broodmare sires, offers exceptional possibilities.

Finally, there’s My Miss Sophia, acquired by Steve Young, agent, for an anonymous client at Keeneland just a couple of hours after Lady Eli went through the ring. Though she only won just over $600,000, and was only G1 placed, she is by Unbridled’s Song, an undisputed star among broodmare sires, and she too was in foal to War Front, for a superb cross. Young gave $4million even for her, and because the baby’s inbreeding to Danzig doesn’t seem to worry anybody else, it certainly won’t worry me.

For my four million dollars, however, give me Lady Eli, because of her intangible factors: her utter toughness. It’s not just that she won Grade One races at two, three, four and five, or that she was Champion Turf Female. It’s her battle back from life threatening laminitis, only to continue her destruction of competitors and maintain her competitive edge and desire to win, that makes her, to me, the best for my mythical money. If she can pass on to her offspring half of her toughness, she will make race horses. It’s the intangibles that fuel the dream, after all, as aren’t thoroughbreds the stuff that dreams are made of?

— Roberta Smoodin

Once the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races have been run, an assessment of the leading freshman sires can finally be made, and this year, as usual, those results have skewed the leading freshman sires ranks, as Cross Traffic, with his filly Jaywalk (who also won the Frizette S.-G1) winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1, making her a millionaire in the process, and bringing his first crop earnings to $1,942,157.

The handsome son of Unbridled’s Song stands at Spendthrift, and his 2018 fee of $7500 has been raised for 2019 to $20,000. Jaywalk will almost certainly be named Champion Two-Year-Old filly, an achievement for any young sire with his first crop at the track, made even more interesting because he had only 91 current two-year-olds. The other freshman sires in positions two through four all had well over 100 in their first crops. It’s also worth noting that Cross Traffic’s yearling average was $33,776, a pittance compared to the first crop yearling skyrockets set off by the offspring of American Pharoah. Having a grade one winner and likely champion in his first crop, Cross Traffic looks poised to become an important sire, and perhaps the prized heir of Unbridled’s Song that breeders have been waiting for.

Second place is held by Goldencents, a son of Into Mischief, whose progeny have earned over a million dollars without any single dominating earner—there is no Jaywalk to catapult his earnings into first place, but he instead has had 22 winners and five black type stakes horses. More than this, though, Cross Traffic and Goldencents represent a Spendthrift exacta, a rare occurrence in freshman sire standings. Spendthrift is known for its creative approach to breeding, offering breeders many options to share in its young stallions without having to spend a fortune (sometimes, payment is even deferred until the weanling or yearling sells at public auction). B. Wayne Hughes has implemented and spearheaded alternative approaches for breeders, and this year’s freshman sire list reflects how well that creativity and flexibility work. Goldencents’ average yearling sold for $46,979, indicating that, like Cross Traffic, those first yearlings sold pretty well, though not into the rarefied air of the sires who inspired buyers as American Pharoah and others have.

Cairo Prince is in third place, with a yearling average of $151,657—Airdrie Stud, where he stands, supported his first foals brilliantly and tirelessly, and this handsome son of Pioneer of the Nile, standing for $25,000 initially, seemed poised to hit. His first crop earnings, thus far, are short of the million dollar mark reached by both Cross Traffic and Goldencents—at $866,198, and with his biggest earner, Cairo Cat, with only $133,750 to his credit, it would seem that buyers spent too much to guarantee a good return on investment from Cairo Prince. Though Cairo Prince himself was precocious, he did excel as a three-year-old as well, winning the Holy Bull S.-G2 by nearly six lengths, so it would seem too early to pass any sort of judgment on the offspring of this young stallion.

Fourth place cements another interesting trend in young sires, as it is held by Will Take Charge, one of the most gorgeous stallions you can lay eyes upon in the Bluegrass. This Champion Three-Year-Old Colt and winner of nearly four million dollars has a race record that includes wins in the Grade One Travers S. and Clark H., and a nose defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1. His first crop inherited his good looks, and averaged $151,931 for yearlings, making him the star sire of this freshman crop by selling price. His dams’ side is one of the hottest, featuring 2013 Broodmare of the Year, Take Charge Lady, by Dehere, and a Rubiano second dam, making him double-bred Fappiano, another trend to be recognized.

Notice anything interesting about these first four leaders in the freshman sire sweepstakes? Cross Traffic, Cairo Prince and Will Take Charge all come from the Unbridled sire line. Goldencents is the lone representative, in the top five, of the Storm Cat line which ruled sires’ lists for so long. There is no A.P. Indy line sire at all in the top ten of freshman sires. With American Pharoah’s first crop waiting in the wings to race in 2019, and Arrogate, also by Unbridled’s Song, having the first mares he covered selling at public auction, this trend appears likely to continue for the immediate future, thanks to his sons Unbridled’s Song and Empire Maker, and his grandsons and great grandsons. Last year, the leading freshman sires were Overanalyze, Violence, Take Charge Indy and Shanghai Bobby, in that order. Unbridled wasn’t represented at all in the top ten. Graydar could be found at number 15, the sole representative of today’s freshman sire leading sire line. That such a sea change should occur between 2017 and 2018 leads one to believe that the dominance of Fappiano and his champion son Unbridled, chronicled in these columns, is the real deal. We have seen the future, and it is Unbridled.

— Roberta Smoodin

When Leofric, by Candy Ride, won the Grade Two Hagyard Fayette S. at Keeneland on October 27, many things were at work to guide him to victory, among them weather and mud, because the favorite, Hofburg, clearly labored. Owned by Landers Racing, LLC, bred by Peter E. Blum, trained by Brad Cox, and ridden smartly by Florent Geroux, Leofric inherited his sire’s proclivity for getting mudders, as well as having a pedigree that in so many ways mimics that of Candy Ride’s very best runner, the magnificent Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who is out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and whose second dam is by Quiet American, making him 4 x 4 Fappiano.

Leofric is out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, Lady Godiva (hip number 215 in the upcoming Fasig-Tipton Night of Stars catalogue—clearly her price just went up, as she is carrying a full sibling to Leofric), and his second dam, Lady of Choice, is by Storm Bird, and out of the Secretariat mare Chosen Lady, making Lady of Choice bred almost exactly like the breed-altering sire, Storm Cat. Combining the Fappiano-line Candy Ride (through Cryptoclearance) with a Fappiano-line mare (Quiet American in the case of Gun Runner, and Unbridled’s Song in the case of Leofric), clearly works. The combination of Mr. Prospector and Fappiano, who was by Mr. Prospector but has established his own sireline with the addition of In Reality relatives, is now a proven nick, but it would seem that within the Fappiano line, several of his sons and grandsons provide possibilities for inbreeding that could not have been predicted. My guess is that the Unbridled line will prove the most profitable among these, with the addition of Buckpasser—the return of Empire Maker and all of his sterling sons now succeeding at stud would offer proof of that hunch.

What also seems clear is that, though Cryptoclearance hasn’t become a sire or grandsire of sires across the board, if you add another, stronger dose of the Fappiano line to Candy Ride, you get something special. As well, adding to the American speed on top, is European staying power through Blushing Groom in Candy Ride’s pedigree. Blushing Groom’s affinity for Nijinsky II is well known, but Storm Bird is bred so similarly to Nijinsky that his presence in a mare’s pedigree enhances Candy Ride’s strengths; it’s worth noting how well Storm Cat has worked with Blushing Groom-line mares, because of this great nick—think Giant’s Causeway and Freud, for example.

More than this, though, an examination of Candy Ride’s best progeny reveals what can only be considered a terrific focus on Storm Cat and his sons and grandsons, in terms of getting stakes winners. The list is exceptional: Shared Belief, Lolo Forever, Sidney’s Candy, Capt. Candyman Can, Tiger Ride and Looking Cool all come from that cross. Paid Up Subscriber and Eagle both are out of Storm Bird second dams. And Sugar Shock’s second dam is an Unbridled mare, another instance of 4 x 4 Fappiano working with Candy Ride. It’s also worth noting that Leofric’s fourth dam is the blue hen, Mine Only, who brings more La Troienne to the table to join the Buckpasser, as previously mentioned, which enriches this pedigree.

Finishing second in the Fayette was Prime Attraction, by Unbridled’s Song—the same sire of Leofric’s dam, giving both Leofric and Prime Attraction a shared grandfather, though Leofric’s is on his dams’ side, and Prime Attraction is on his sires’. Once again, the Fappiano connection must be noted, as should the Secretariat, through A.P. Indy’s dam on the dams’ side, and the dose of Nijinsky II, through Strawberry Road, also on the dams’ side. Plus, Lord Avie on his dams’ side offers another dose of Somethingroyal, Secretariat’s immortal dam. The similarities in these pedigrees is fascinating.

In third place was Nice Not Nice, and the echoes continue, as he is by Twirling Candy, a wonderful young sire by Candy Ride. But—no surprise—his dam, Kiss is a Kiss, is by Broken Vow, by Unbridled, out of Wedding Vow, by Nijinsky II, and whose second dam is Wedding Picture, by—of course—Blushing Groom, doubling the influential stamina influence, top and bottom. Just as Leofric and Prime Attraction share a grandfather, Leofric and Nice Not Nice share a father and a grandfather.

The Fayette S. first three finishers demonstrate such a similarity that an alien being seeking to learn about thoroughbred breeding from this race would assume that the entire thoroughbred genepool consisted of no more than four horses—Fappiano, Nijinsky II and his close relative Storm Bird, Blushing Groom, and Secretariat. Young Twirling Candy’s best progeny reflect the same proclivities as his sire’s, littered with runners out of Storm Cat line mares, Fappiano line mares, Blushing Groom line mares, etc. In fact, his best runner to date, Finley’sluckycharm, was out of a Victory Gallop mare, and Victory Gallop, of course, was by Cryptoclearance—a twinning of that son of Fappiano, top and bottom, making Nice Not Nice 4 x 3 Cryptoclearance, and 5 x 4 Fappiano. Twirling Candy’s other top winner, Danzing Candy, is 5 x 5 Fappiano (through Unbridled on his dams’ side), and his second dam is by a son of Nijinsky II. The evidence doesn’t lie; these patterns aren’t mere coincidence.

There are some pedigree elements which you cannot have too much of, though they are mostly through mares: La Troienne, Somethingroyal, Almahmoud, Plucky Liege. The only sire who has made his mark by creating distinct sire lines through his sons and grandsons is Northern Dancer, who as a sire of sires and broodmare sire was truly breed altering. Though we must acknowledge Mr. Prospector as well, of course, it now appears, through an examination of the Fayette S. first three finishers, that Fappiano may well inhabit a similar place in the rarefied air of sire lines that are unique and everlasting.

This past weekend in thoroughbred racing was missing a lot of stars, who are awaiting the arrival of the impending Breeders’ Cup Weekend, so the drawing of huge conclusions may be faulty. But American racing is starting to look more and more like the Fappiano Show. As Storm Cat’s influence wanes, and A.P. Indy remains a huge influence through his sons and grandsons, a blast from the past, in the form of Fappiano, is surfacing. Once considered a part of Mr. Prospector’s legacy, Fappiano now presents himself not just as the sire of his own, influential sire line which can be crossed with other Mr. Prospector line stallions, but as the sire of multiple and unique sire lines which can be bred together to great effect. Cryptoclearance, Unbridled, Unbridled’s Song, Empire Maker—all are making an impact on racing today, and carving into stone the name of their primogenitor, Fappiano, as one of the all time greats.

— Roberta Smoodin

Thanks to Thoroughbred People contributor and bloodstock consultant Roberta Smoodin for this article. Roberta offers pedigree analysis for sales and breeding recommendation services for your broodmares – please contact Roberta at [email protected] for more information.

A 70/1 long shot winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity S. at Keeneland on October 6 created a frisson of excitement for the crowd, trainer Ben Colebrook winning his first graded stakes, jockey Albin Jiminez ditto, and especially second crop sire Paynter, whose first two crops had not been setting the world on fire—until now. The colt, Knicks Go, took the Futurity with ease, full of run, eventually winning by 5 ½ in a win that was never in question. On a race day full of thrilling upsets, Knicks Go was the star, and he will now undoubtedly go to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 as the Futurity provided him with the coveted “win and you’re in” opportunity.

Paynter won the Haskell Invitational S.-G1 at three, and finished second to Union Rags in the Belmont S.-G1, earning over a million dollars. His pedigree boasts Awesome Again on top, and he is out of a full sister to the great Tiznow, so it’s no surprise that he could get the distance, as should his progeny. Winstar stands him for $12,500 stands and nurses, and he is a handsome, short-backed, masculine stallion with lovely conformation, but his get has lacked star quality until now. Knicks Go has propelled him to fifth place on the second crop sires list, which is currently headed by Violence. This Breeders’ Futurity win has certainly sent Paynter into the ranks of serious young sires to be reckoned with.

An online nicking system gives Knicks Go a “D” rating, but as I’ve noted before, these rankings fail to consider stellar female families lurking in the dams’ side of the pedigree. Out of the Outflanker mare Kosmo’s Buddy, Knicks Go’s pedigree complements the Awesome Again sire line with inbreeding to Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector (as well as an addition of Alydar). It’s the mares that matter, however. Outflanker is out of Lassie’s Lady, by Alydar, out of Lassie Dear, from the female family of A.P. Indy (providing inbreeding to La Troienne as well). Kosmo’s Buddy’s dam is Vaulted, by Allen’s Prospect, a son of Mr. Prospector, out of the great blue hen Change Water, whose prolific family includes Cozzene, among many others. Kosmo’s Buddy’s second dam is Aube d’Or, by Medaille d’Or, whose pedigree riches I’ve discussed before. By Secretariat (out of one of the best Princequillo mares of all time, Somethingroyal) and out of Canadian Champion and blue hen producer Fanfreluche. Fanfreluche is key here, as she was by Northern Dancer himself, and she provides the female genetic material of that all time great, complementing the many doses of male Northern Dancer in this pedigree, through such sources as Deputy Minister and Danzig, among others. With this kind of female family, it should come as no surprise that Knicks Go has inherited the large heart gene which mares of this caliber deliver, over generations, to their offspring.

Knicks Go is owned by KRA Stud Farm and was bred in Maryland by Angie Moore. He was a $40,000 weanling at Keeneland November ’16, and an $87,000 yearling at Keeneland September ’17, and right now looks like the buy of the century for his connections. He’s now earned $330,515, with a record of four starts, two wins, and a third. Come early November, look for this handsome gray colt to try to make Paynter a superstar young stud. A rakish commentator on television insinuated that this colt’s namesake, the New York Knicks basketball team, don’t seem to go lately, but this colt may be a harbinger of good things for them in the upcoming basketball season.

— Roberta Smoodin

When Parx has its biggest race day, with two million-dollar grade one races on the card, the Cotillion S. and the Pennsylvania Derby, the biggest guns come out. No surprise, then, that the jockey known by the nickname Big Money won both, on September 22, 2018, within the space of a single hour. Smith is certainly one of the greats of all time, and his brilliant ride on Midnight Bisou, which resulted in the disqualification of the previously unbeaten Monomoy Girl, and his confident, chilly hand ride on McKinzie, proved you can have no one better at the controls. Smith is simply the Master. Whether he’s riding for Baffert or Asmussen, betting on Big Money Mike is the ultimate no brainer in racing.

Midnight Bisou had proved her mettle already, but all the money was on Monomoy Girl. This was a furious race down the stretch, as the two fillies battled with all their grit and determination on show. Midnight Bisou, however, was impeded, herded, sent inside and then wide, and only Smith could have kept her within a head of Monomoy Girl. Though the DQ may be contentious, Midnight Bisou came out on top, making the exacta a trifle more lucrative for those who boxed the top contenders.

Midnight Lute, the sire of Midnight Bisou, has had success in his six years’ crops racing, but an examination of his biggest winners indicates interesting elements. He is out of the unraced Dehere mare Candytuft, and it is becoming increasingly clear that Dehere is both a broodmare sire to be reckoned with, with his Secretariat dam, and that anomaly among the offspring of Deputy Minister who is forging his own, unique path as a broodmare sire. Like the combination of Mr. Prospector and Fappiano, which is a kind of magic charm these days, combining daughters or granddaughters of Dehere with other strains of Deputy Minister works. This is demonstrated over and over in Midnight Lute’s most successful progeny, including Midnight Miley, Shakin It Up, Governor Charlie, Irish Presence, Ahead by a Century, and Roundupthelute, not to mention that Midnight Aria is out of a Vice Regent mare, himself the sire of Deputy Minister. Graded stakes winners that are 3 X 4 and 4 X 4 Deputy Minister abound in Midnight Lute’s list of top winners. This isn’t coincidence—this is the strength of Dehere. The other repeating motif one sees is a doubling of Secretariat, Dehere’s broodmare sire, and probably the source of his power as his own strain in Deputy Minister’s offspring.

Which brings us to Midnight Bisou’s pedigree, (which was F Graded by a nicking service, incidentally). Her dam is the Repent mare Diva Delite, and though Repent hasn’t proven spectacular as a sire (and I say this with regret, as I boarded, for years, one of his top mares, the exquisite graded stakes winner Sweet Repent, whom I adored), he does bring the wealth of Northern Dancer and female blood offered by Sovereign Dancer, Repent’s sire. It is, however, her second dam, Tour Hostess, who provides the key to the pedigree of Midnight Bisou. She was by Tour d’Or, a son of Medaille d’Or, by Secretariat, and out of the great blue hen mare Fanfreluche (and the perhaps apocryphal tale of Fanfreluche and this royally bred colt, boarded at a well-known vet clinic in the Bluegrass, getting loose thanks to an errant barn worker, and running wild through the farm until captured). By Northern Dancer, Fanfreluche brings riches in the form of inbreeding to the great brothers Bull Dog and Sir Gallahad III, but also one more unique element: a dose of Bunty Lawless, the grandfather of Deputy Minister’s dam, and a name seldom seen in contemporary pedigrees. From Midnight Bisou’s pedigree, we can infer that, once again, the strength of so many pedigrees comes from their dams’ sides, and that Bunty Lawless is the reason why inbreeding to Deputy Minister through Dehere and other sons and grandsons of Deputy Minister is becoming such a powerful influence, especially when supplemented by extra doses of Secretariat, and especially for Midnight Lute.

There are, however, other riches to be mined in Midnight Bisou’s pedigree. A wealth of Princequillo blood on her dams’ side, through his best son, Round Table, and a little-known son, Debbysman, reaches out to the two doses of Secretariat’s dam, perhaps the greatest Princequillo mare ever, Somethingroyal. As well, two doses of Turn-to, through his relatively unknown son Turn to Mars, and through his daughter, Cargreen, provides the powerful zigzag, through male and female relatives, and then there is the appearance of another great blue hen mare, Rough Shod II, through her daughter Moccasin, in Baldski. Add three more doses of Bull Dog, and Baldski’s sire Nijinsky II, the appearance of whom always seems to supercharge other doses of Northern Dancer, and we’ve discovered a pedigree to be reckoned with—it just needs to be traced farther back than most online nicking programs are willing to do.

Pennsylvania Derby-G1 winner McKinzie also demonstrates some of his young sire’s, Street Sense’s, favorite crosses. An examination of his best winners yields a love of inbreeding to Mr. Prospector, in such big winners as Winning Toast, Callback, Street Fancy, Tower of Texas, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Thatcher Street, Cosmic Storm, and others. Much like Dehere and Fappiano seem to have created their own unique sire lines, making inbreeding to their sires a force to be reckoned with, so too has Machiavellian, an own son of Mr. Prospector, out of the great Coup de Folie, whose entire family seems almost magical in its ability to produce great race horses and mares, with her strength being that she is by Halo (bringing the extra dose of Almahmoud, the greatest Mahmoud mare, also the dam of Natalma, Northern Dancer’s dam), out of a Hoist the Flag mare (bringing the stamina influence of Ribot to the mix). Since Street Sense himself is out of a Dixieland Band mare, we can recognize the importance of inbreeding to Almahmoud in his racing and stud success. Street Sense also has Ribot, through His Majesty, in his dams’ side, as his second dam is by that important son, so Street Sense’s ability to get the classic distance and win the Kentucky Derby-G1 can come as no surprise, nor can the success of his offspring. McKinzie’s dam, Runway Model, is by Petionville, a son of Mr. P’s son Seeking the Gold, so he continues this magical cross.

Two more elements combine in McKinzie that we see in many of Street Sense’s best offspring. First, a dose of Seattle Slew. McKinzie’s second dam is Ticket to Houston, a daughter of Slew’s son, Houston. Sons of Seattle Slew litter the pedigrees of more of Street Sense’s best, from Aubby K. to Callback to Avery Island to Cigar Street, out of a daughter of Slew himself. More than this, though, McKinzie’s dams’ side brings multiple doses of one of the greatest mares of all time, La Troienne. Two doses of Buckpasser, the most formidable source of La Troienne in contemporary pedigrees, exist in Petionville, McKinzie’s broodmare sire, plus another dose through La Troienne’s son, Bimelech. Add to that Houston’s La Troienne rich pedigree, including Belle of Troy through his broodmare sire, Quadrangle, and Seattle Slew’s multiple doses of La Troienne through Glamour and Busher (with Glamour’s dam and Busher’s sire being full siblings), and ancient thoroughbred history once more pulls a pedigree together through the greatness of a single mare. Or, perhaps two mares, because it must be noted that both Mr. Prospector and Seattle Slew hail from a single female line, that of the great Myrtlewood, making the cross of these two one of the most basic, outstanding nicks available.

Sometimes ancient history and contemporary superstardom intersect. In these two cases, in the person of one rider, Big Money Mike Smith. Certainly, he gets the best mounts in the business, because of his magical expertise. But he never fails to give a masterful ride to these special horses, bringing both his great hands and his unmatched race riding intelligence to every contest. Give Big Money Mike the horse, with the pedigree and talent, and chances are he will get the job done.

— Roberta Smoodin

The 2018 Keeneland September Sale represented change in more ways than the obvious maximizing of book one to four days, the entire first week of the sale, in reality putting book one and book two together, shortening the number of entries sold per day, and even beginning the sale at one o’clock because of the torrential rain in the weekend preceding the sale, which inhibited buyers’ ability to examine the select yearlings. It would appear that 2018 reveals a shift in the tectonic plates of the yearling market, with new stars emerging and energizing both the averages and the total amount of receipts to Keeneland. There would seem to be a belief in the future of thoroughbred racing once more.

First, we need to examine the book one results from last year’s September sale. The top ten sires, by receipts accrued, were utterly predictable: Tapit, War Front, Medaglia d’Oro, Pioneer of the Nile, Scat Daddy, Speightstown, Candy Ride, Giant’s Causeway, Hard Spun, and Kitten’s Joy. Not a single freshman sire appeared among them—there was no new sire igniting the hopes and dreams of buyers with promises of potential. The list really did represent all the usual suspects. Scat Daddy had died, so this was his ultimate crop. Hard Spun was the youngest sire on the top ten list, and seemed an anomaly though his yearlings looked the part, even if his production didn’t entirely support his inclusion in this elite company. Uncle Mo, advertised as “the hottest young sire on the planet,” still had naysayers and disbelievers—could a son of Indian Charlie really be a top sire, or was he a flash in the pan? Anyone who had seen him would surely become a believer, as he exemplifies studly handsomeness, in size, musculature, gaze. He knocks your eyes out. But still—Indian Charlie?

2018’s book one shook everything up. The leading sire was Medaglia d’Oro, selling 31 yearlings for an average of $625,645, for a total of over $19 million dollars. Some of this was due to Godolphin’s unwavering support of their star stallion, but the rest of the market seemed to agree, and bidding competition was fierce for the top lots by Medaglia d’Oro. But second on the list was the stuff dreams are made of: American Pharoah, with his first crop of yearlings, with 37 selling, for an average of $466, 757, for a total of over $17 million. Perhaps because it’s been so long since we had a triple crown winner, but as an inveterate student of yearling sales, I can’t remember a year when a freshman sire cracked the top ten, let alone made it to second place.

In third was the abovementioned Uncle Mo, finally getting his just rewards for his achievemenst as a sire. 40 of his yearlings sold, for an average of just over $422,000, and an average of $16,890,000. His top lots have routinely sold well at two-year-old in training sales, where they work fast, but trickle down economics has finally worked with his yearlings. In fourth place was last year’s first place stallion, Tapit. It’s hard to explain why this fall from grace occurred—was this crop simply not as good as previous ones, or was there too much competition from other stallions in the marketplace?

The real stand out, in terms of average, was War Front—everyone wanted one, or two, or even three. His 18 yearlings sold averaged $782,400, for a total of over $14 million dollars, and bidding seemed fiercest for those War Front offspring the market deemed perfect. Coolmore’s unwavering support of the offspring of this stallion was challenged by Godolphin, Larry Best, Phoenix, and other big buyers.

Now for the deserving newcomers to the top ten list: Curlin and Into Mischief, who both had breakthrough years as stallions, and deserved their new superstardom in the yearling market. They displaced Speightstown and Candy Ride, and even old faithful (now deceased) Giant’s Causeway. Pioneer of the Nile was next, having dropped a few notches from his fourth place finish in yearling sales last year (partially due to the popularity of his triple crown winning son), and then more surprises: Quality Road, a superstar in the making, at ninth, and Empire Maker, with his first crop after his return from Japan, in tenth place. I must mention that in eleventh place came my previously accoladed Honor Code, whose first day surge continued throughout book one.

The strength and health of the yearling market, though we remain at the very top of the market and haven’t descended into the much more problematic middle and lower market, cannot be disputed. The fact that young stallions are climbing up the list at the top indicates a buoyancy and a belief in the future that will undoubtedly continue at least through book two. Then the strength of the market will reveal its true self, when the top stallions’ offspring give way to the get of others. There will no doubt be some surprises, and I, for one, can’t wait to see them. It is wonderful, however, to see young blood being appreciated, and a variety of blood—the A.P. Indy line, the Storm Cat line, the Danzig line, the Unbridled line, the Mr. Prospector line, and yes, even Indian Charlie—giving the market breadth and depth.

— Roberta Smoodin

The history of the Triple Crown can be traced to 1919, when horse racing writers took note of the first winner of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes, the great Sir Barton. However, 1930 was the year when the phrase became common parlance, when Gallant Fox won the Triple Crown for his breeder, Belair Stud, and then, five years later, his son Omaha also won the Triple Crown, the only father/son duo to complete such a feat, and for the same breeder. Both were trained by Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons, the only trainer in history to train two Triple Crown winners, until this year. Both were retired to stand at stud at Claiborne Farm, Gallant Fox in 1931 and Omaha in 1936, though Gallant Fox was a highly esteemed sire there for many years, while Omaha, lacking in fertility, was sent in 1943 to New York and later to Nebraska.

Calumet Farm, in its inimitable heyday, also earned two Triple Crowns and stood both their champions together, Whirlaway, winner of the Triple Crown in 1941, retired to Calumet in 1944, and Citation in 1948, retired in 1952. Eddie Arcaro rode both, the only jockey to ride two Triple Crown winners, and the Calumet pair were trained by the only father/son combination to complete such a feat, Ben Jones and Jimmy Jones.

Now, this year, a spectacular horse and his magical trainer enter this rarified atmosphere. Justify, a man among boys from the first time race fans laid eyes upon him, is our Triple Crown hero, trained by the silver haired wonder Bob Baffert, who won the same prestigious prize in 2015 with American Pharoah. Justify, owned by a conglomerate of owners that includes the China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners, Starlight Racing and Winstar Farm, among others, announced Friday, September 14, that the long-rumored agreement to stand Justify at Ashford Stud (Coolmore America), in Versailles, Kentucky, had become reality, and Ashford too joins this elite company, with Claiborne and Calumet, as only the third farm to ever stand two Triple Crown winners at the same time.

Ashford is renowned for its management of young stallions, frequently seeing their young studs at the top of freshman sires lists, and this year the premier of American Pharoah’s yearlings at Keeneland September have hit the proverbial home run, with the optimistic marketplace valuing them as precious as gold. As of today, with the first day of Book Two completed, American Pharoah’s yearlings are third in average, behind only Uncle Mo (another outrageously successful young stud made at Ashford) and Medaglia d’Oro. This elite company for an untested, freshman sire is unheard of; American Pharoah’s average, with 40 yearlings sold, is just under $450,000, with just under $18 million in accrued results now in Keeneland’s coffers.

Justify is a magnificent chestnut colt by Scat Daddy, out of the Ghostzapper mare Stage Magic, and Baffert further tempted the racing gods by leaving the colt unraced at two. His career began at three, and no other unraced two-year-old has ever won the Triple Crown. Justify was considered to be completely untested, and disbelievers and naysayers abounded before the Kentucky Derby, only to be silenced by Justify’s magnificent win. Even the Preakness win couldn’t silence the cynics, who predicted a son of Scat Daddy would never win the mile and a half Belmont Stakes. Once again, wrong. The great sadness is that this big, gorgeous, muscular hunk of horseflesh will not be running in the Breeders’ Cup Classic; he was retired with filling in an ankle that prohibited training.

A stud fee has yet to be set for Justify, but we can assume Ashford will do him justice. American Pharoah’s 2016 stud fee was set at $200,000, though rumors suggested that for bringing multiple, stakes winning or producing mares to him, or even single, spectacular mares, breeders could bargain that down to $100,000, stands and nurses. To assume that a similar fee will be set for Justify makes sense, and given the untimely loss of Justify’s superstar dad, Scat Daddy, and Scat Daddy’s success on both sides of the Atlantic, on dirt and on turf, short and long, an even higher fee would not surprise. The excitement caused at Keeneland September by the first yearlings of American Pharoah will certainly be echoed when, in 2021, Justify’s first yearlings appear in Lexington, thrilling buyers and fans alike.

— Roberta Smoodin

Thanks to Thoroughbred People contributor and bloodstock consultant Roberta Smoodin for this article. Roberta offers pedigree analysis for sales and breeding recommendation services for your broodmares – please contact Roberta at [email protected] for more information.