Thoroughbredpeople.com

Amidst the pomp and pageantry and bitten fingernails of Derby/Oaks weekend, with Justify shining in the slop and Monomoy Girl fighting like a tigress down the stretch, one stallion quietly racked up wins: Ghostzapper. The sire of both Proctor’s Ledge, the winner of the Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Mile and Holy Helena, the winner of the Sheepshead Bay S.-G2 at Belmont, Ghostzapper completed his superfecta when American Gal, out of the Ghostzapper mare American Story, won the Humana Distaff S.-G1 at Churchill, not to mention the hero of the day, as splendid a horse as you will ever see, Justify, being out of a Ghostzapper mare.

Quite the Saturday for the 18-year-old stallion who quietly and perennially gets racehorses. Now he has jumped to number 12 on the leading sires list, and 14 on the broodmare sires list. Seemingly unremarkable, until you notice that the other leaders all have more producing mares than he has: he has 50, while such greats as Giant’s Causeway, leading the list, and A.P. Indy, have over 280. Ghostzapper has the fewest broodmares, by far, of any horse in the top 50.

Ghostzapper has stood his entire career at Adena Springs in Paris, Kentucky, the longtime favorite of the stallion manager who adores his playful charge. An elegant, lightly boned horse with an intelligent head and eye, plain except for a small white star on his forehead, one would never guess what a cut throat killer this horse was on the track. A multiple grade one winner (the Breeders’ Cup Classic in new track record time, the Metropolitan H., the Vosburgh S., and the Woodward S.) and earner of nearly $3.5 million, what was mindboggling was that he almost always won by multiple lengths, in super-fast times, and was known for his ability to do the near-impossible: run the last quarter faster than he ran the first. He was a jaw-droppingly good racehorse, and made rivals look like broken hearted nags. Horse of the Year and Champion Older Male titles were a foregone conclusion. I loved to watch him run, because he was the kind of racehorse who made your heart beat faster with his utter brilliance.

His pedigree boasts classic distance on top, speed on the bottom, and is free of inbreeding in the first four generations, making it possible to breed him to almost anything – more Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, and In Reality make it possible to mine American bloodstock for mates with ease. His sire, Awesome Again, was also the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and his mother, the Relaunch mare Baby Zip, was also the dam of the great and recently deceased sire City Zip, an undervalued stallion who threw speed to spare. Awesome Again is by Deputy Minister, out of the Blushing Groom mare Primal Force, who is a daughter of the Mr. Prospector mare, Primal Prospect.

I love Relaunch mares, with their combination of In Reality and The Axe II, bringing Mahmoud and La Troienne to the table to meet flat out speed. Add the Tri Jet mare Thirty Zip as his second dam, and you’ve got speed on speed, and even more outcross. In a world that is attempting (in my opinion, a scary option) to inbreed to Storm Cat and A.P. Indy, Ghostzapper’s pedigree makes him attractive to a wide variety of mares. Bring on the Northern Dancer, the Mr. Prospector, and the Fappiano – Ghostzapper loves them all.

Proctor’s Ledge is bred on the same pattern as grade one winner Contested, whose dam was by Arch, and second dam was by Seeking the Gold. Both of these pedigrees strengthen the Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector in Ghostzapper’s pedigree by echoing it. In Proctor’s Ledge, Danzig is featured in Arch’s pedigree, and Proctor’s Ledge’s second dam is by Mr. Prospector himself. Her third dam, Drumtop, is by Round Table, adding the cachet of Princequillo to the mix. But the class of the pedigree is epitomized by Proctor’s Ledge’s sixth dam, the great Rough Shod II, making Proctor’s Ledge tail female Rough Shod. This puts her in the company of other greats who were tail female Rough Shod: Nureyev, Bound, Sadler’s Wells, Tate Gallery, and Topsider, whose dam, Drumtop, is Proctor’s Ledge’s third dam. This family, like so many great ones, has almost disappeared, so a race filly with Rough Shod in such a highly visible position makes Proctor’s Ledge very valuable both as a racehorse and as a broodmare prospect.

Of course, it should be noted that her Saturday success in the Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile was on the grass. The disappearance of this family could have to do with the weakening of turf breeding in this country, which for so long was dominated by Nureyev. What’s interesting about this pedigree is what is absent from it: any other strain of In Reality or his relatives, rarely seen in Ghostzapper’s offspring.

Like Proctor’s Ledge, Holy Helena is bred along proven lines for Ghostzapper. Out of a Holy Bull mare, her pedigree harkens to another of Ghostzapper’s great fillies, Judy the Beauty, a champion, millionaire, and multiple grade one winner. Holy Bull’s sire, Great Above, is almost a twin of In Reality in terms of blood, and Holy Bull himself, out of the Al Hattab mare Sharon Brown, duplicates The Axe II as found in Ghostzapper’s pedigree, through Relaunch; Relaunch and Holy Bull complement each other to perfection. It can be no coincidence that Holy Grace, Holy Helena’s dam, has a dam by Stately Don, a son of Nureyev. What are the odds that this is mere coincidence? Slim and none. Clearly Ghostzapper loves to be offered a bit of Rough Shod II in a pedigree. Holy Helena too has a great tail female relative – Missy Baba, by My Babu. Frank Stronach bred Holy Helena himself, so it’s no surprise that her third dam is Sooni, a Buckpasser mare. Stronach has long been a proponent of getting as much La Troienne into pedigrees as possible, along with In Reality and his relatives, and Holy Helena’s pedigree reflects the success of this philosophy.

Ghostzapper’s grade one winner as a broodmare sire, apart from Justify, was American Gal in the Humana Distaff on Saturday, and in her pedigree we see many of the same themes as we’ve seen in Holy Helena and Proctor’s Ledge. But most interesting is inbreeding to Relaunch, top and bottom, plus the appearance in Tapit, her sire Concord Point’s sire, of Relaunch’s full sister, Moon Glitter. This inclusion of brothers and sisters enhances the possibility that the resulting horse will get the big heart gene that makes a race horse. More doses of In Reality, top and bottom (American Gal’s tail female fourth dam is Really Fancy, by In Reality), and inbreeding to Northern Dancer through Dixieland Band, Nijinsky and Vice Regent through a daughter, reflect the pedigrees of the first two stakes winners examined. Breeder/owner Kaleem Shah was smart enough to borrow a page from the Stronach/Adena playbook in the construction of this pedigree, and it has paid off.

Then there’s Justify. In a previous column, I testified to the greatness of his pedigree, and my admiration for his breeder, John Gunther of Glennwood Farm. The strengths and sublimity of this pedigree are numerous, with Ghostzapper adding the panache of Relaunch, with his wealth of In Reality, La Troienne, and Mahmoud, and his numerous doses of the Spearmint mare Plucky Liege. Barring any catastrophic injury to Justify (other than the well-documented “scratches” afflicting his left hind), we can expect Ghostzapper, with his 50 producing dams, to vault up the broodmare sires list, at very least into the top ten, if not the top five.

Ghostzapper was a racehorse for the ages. It’s looking like his stud career and broodmare sire career are following suit. Given his production on all levels, his $85,000 stud fee seems reasonable, as he gets racehorses. Though he has not produced a running machine as bloodthirsty and heartbreaking as himself, he is by no means done yet. Nor are his daughters close to being done – That running machine may just be Justify.

— Roberta Smoodin

Thanks to Thoroughbred People contributor and bloodstock consultant Roberta Smoodin for this article. Roberta offers pedigree analysis for sales and breeding recommendation services for your broodmares – please contact Roberta at [email protected] for more information.

This year’s very strong, exciting Kentucky Derby field was marked, as well, by the supremacy of certain sires to a surprising degree. What were the odds that nearly half of the field would be comprised of the get of three stallions? Scat Daddy, sire of the winner, Curlin, sire of the second placed horse, and Medaglia d’Oro, whose promising offspring failed to impress. What’s no surprise is that these three stallions are leaders in three-year-old earnings as well.

Scat Daddy is the daddy of the year, with four of his sons in the Derby gate, and Justify becoming the easy winner. Mendelssohn, hero of the UAE Derby-G2, had the misfortune to draw post position 14, and suffered the calamitous trip that post position has previously caused. His Derby performance must be tossed, and we will have to wait for the Breeders’ Cup Classic before we see him again.

The other two Scat Daddys in the field, Flameaway and Combatant, finished thirteenth and eighteenth, respectively, but in such a competitive year, just getting into the gate of this Derby was an achievement. The untimely loss of Scat Daddy in 2015 is underscored by this quadruple entry. He has gone from being considered a juvenile and/or turf sire to being number one in the list of leading sires of three-year-olds, with $3,925,208 in earnings, over a million dollars more than his closest rival, Into Mischief.

Number three on that list is Curlin, who also has three colts in the Derby. Two of them had unfortunate draws – Solomini, the other Baffert trainee, in 17, and the Repole color bearer Vino Rosso in 18. But Champion Good Magic drew the six, right next to Justify. These two big, handsome, chestnut colts were a sight to behold leaving the gate together. Though the two-year-old champ was no match for the winner, he did show grit and determination against the juggernaut that is Justify. Curlin, after a slow start at stud, has turned into the real deal, and had three-year-old earnings of $2,305,589 before the Derby.

Third place finisher Audible is by another Storm Cat line stallion, Into Mischief. Fourth place was taken by Instilled Regard, by Arch, fifth by My Boy Jack, by Creative Cause, and sixth was Bravazo, by Awesome again.

What must be noted in these top finishers is the lack of an A.P. Indy line sire. Seventh place was taken by a lightly raced son of rock star sire Tapit, the Juddmonte homebred, Hofburg, who according to trainer Bill Mott is now being pointed toward the Belmont. Does this represent a seismic shift in the tectonic plates of stallion-dom?

From this Derby alone, we will doubtless see at least two top sons of Scat Daddy, Justify and Mendelssohn, standing at stud next year, at Winstar and Ashford. Then history will determine if 2018 changed the thoroughbred business and established Scat Daddy as a sire of sires.

— Roberta Smoodin

I was a writer of fiction first, novels and short stories, and for a long time, this line of work supported my Thoroughbred habit, until that habit became a full-time job, more interesting to me than writing fiction. I do, however, like to make things up—characters, worlds, fantasies, metaphors. I have a vivid imagination. So it occurred to me—why not create the perfect, imaginary Kentucky Derby contender?

I can see him now—16 hands tall or a little more, broad of chest and hindquarters, scopey (long enough for both Ortiz brothers to sit on him) with a noble, intense, intelligent head, eyes that cut through you, nostrils as big as dinner plates. Undoubtedly bay, because as someone once jokingly told me, “what other colors do thoroughbreds come in?” For chic, I’d add a blaze face and a couple of high socks.

That’s the easy part. As a pedigree wonk, what building blocks would I use to make a horse that could win the Derby? Picture pedigree as a Lego building in the works. What fits together? What blocks complement the other blocks? What creates the perfect building?

If I could afford any sire I wanted, and why not, if this is imaginary I can also imagine a big bank account, the one sire I’d consider would be Tapit. If my imagination gave me a budget to work with, I’d consider a son of Tapit—Belmont S.-G1 winning Tonalist. Tapit is the no-brainer here, if my imaginary bankroll includes winning the lottery. His pedigree offers everything that money can buy except stamina, which I’ll get from my dams’ side. By Pulpit, he offers A.P. Indy and Mr. Prospector, both tail female Frizette through Myrtlewood, a powerful doubling of that great female line. Tapit’s dam, Tap Your Heels, offers Unbridled as her sire (Dr. Fager, In Reality, Buckpasser, plus another way back to Mr. Prospector through his entirely distinctive Fappiano branch), and the Nijinsky II mare Ruby Slippers as her dam. I was lucky enough to see Ruby Slippers when she went through a Keeneland mixed sale years ago, and, aside from being a genetic marvel with her dams’ side offering La Troienne and In Reality, she was the prettiest little gray mare you could ever hope to see. She had a doll’s head, and big soft eyes—she could have been a child’s stuffed toy.

What Tonalist has to offer, for the budget-minded imaginer, is stamina, in the form of Pleasant Colony (by His Majesty, by Ribot). This was what allowed an endurance-challenged son of Tapit to get the Belmont’s mile and a half. Tonalist doesn’t look like any other Tapit—he harkens back instead to Pleasant Colony, with his very masculine head, stout bone and high withers, not to mention his chocolate coat. An Evans-bred, Mr. Evans didn’t sell this big, strong colt because of an accident that left both his front legs scarred, though no real damage was done. Thanks to fate, Robert Evans won a Triple Crown race with his homebred. Add another dose of Buckpasser and My Baby on his dams’ side, and you’ve got a young sire who should be able to produce offspring that can get any distance. Kentucky Derby, here they come.

If I get my season to Tapit, what would my imaginary mare’s pedigree consist of? She would be by Forestry, like Nyquist’s dam. It’s clear that Tapit loves Pleasant Colony (as in the pedigree of Tonalist above), and Forestry provides this, as well as the Storm Cat to complement the Nijinsky II in Tapit’s pedigree. We also get a doubled dose of Dr. Fager. But the best thing about Forestry is that his fourth dam, Sequence, is also the dam of Gold Digger, Mr. Prospector’s dam. This means that we get another tail female family that goes back first to the great Myrtlewood, and through her to Frizette. This worked for the aforementioned Nyquist, whose second dam is by Seeking the Gold. In my mare, though, we get three ways back to Frizette. In fact, Nyquist’s dam, Seeking Gabrielle, might fill the bill entirely for my ideal imaginary mare, who also provides another way back to stamina influence Ribot through his great son Arts and Letters. Remember, she foaled Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist with Uncle Mo, adding stamina and endurance to his speedy pedigree. Imagine what she could do with Tapit.

If my imaginary bankroll can only afford Tonalist, my imaginary mare from my imaginary broodmare band changes. Two more doses of Ribot, one through a doubling of Pleasant Colony and the other through Arts and Letters, may make a horse who can win at two miles, an unnecessary indulgence. I’m looking for more speed for Tonalist, so I might settle on a Graeme Hall mare, like the dam of Curalina, Whatdreamsaremadeof.

Dehere is an increasingly powerful source of genetic material, turning up in pedigrees of stakes horses frequently, and seemingly his own branch of Deputy Minister’s family, as he has been inbred to other sources of Deputy Minister with great success. To me, his Secretariat dam, Sister Dot, with her Damascus dams’ side, is the difference maker. Graeme Hall’s dam, Win Crafty Lady, brings In Reality and La Troienne to the mix, offering a doubling of The Axe II through Al Hattab to complement that found in Tonalist. Add more Damascus, La Troienne, and Northern Dancer through Eastern Echo, and you’ve created a son of Tonalist who can get any distance. Kentucky Derby, here we come.

Another good choice for Tonalist would be the awesome producer, Miss Macy Sue, the dam of both Liam’s Map and Not this Time. I love her because she is double-bred, and tail female, Ta Wee, the full sister of the great Dr. Fager, and great in her own way as both a race mare and a producer. There is speed everywhere in this pedigree which, one would hope, would be enhanced by the Ribot in Tonalist.

If I desire a totally imaginary mare for my Kentucky Derby horse, that changes everything. A whole new genetic stew would result. I have a terrific soft spot for Irish River in a mare’s pedigree—that dose of Klairon, which so complements My Babu and Turn-to in Tapit, and is so hard to find in contemporary pedigrees, is matched with Princequillo, Nasrullah, Sir Gallahad III and his half-brother Admiral Drake. And then there’s the physical—Irish River had more bone than just about any horse I’ve ever seen, those short stout cannon bones seared in my memory. Stoutness and stamina would be the result of the imaginary Irish River mare in my colt’s pedigree. And I can’t help longing for a bit of Giant’s Causeway thrown in, for both the Storm Cat and the Rahy, wonderfully complementing the Nijinsky.

Then there are the “too much is not enough” elements in pedigree that I prize. Never too much La Troienne. Never too much Somethingroyal. Never too much Plucky Liege. And give me more Buckpasser, always. These Lego blocks should be fundamental and frequent in building this perfect pedigree.

With the Kentucky Derby just around the corner, I need my imaginary colt to have turned three and accrued a hundred points. I have my imaginary hat ready, and plan to be at Churchill on the first Saturday in May, with my Derby horse ready to go, a fire breathing dragon going a mile and a quarter in just under two minutes. Can’t wait.

— Roberta Smoodin

Thanks to Thoroughbred People contributor and bloodstock consultant Roberta Smoodin for this article. Roberta offers pedigree analysis for sales and breeding recommendation services for your broodmares – please contact Roberta at [email protected] for more information.

What’s not to love about Malibu Moon? Perhaps his curmudgeonly displeasure at open house stallion shows at Spendthrift, where viewers are warned not to pet or offer fingers to the old man, now 21. But currently at number eight on the leading stallions list, with his Magnum Moon considered the favorite for the upcoming Kentucky Derby, and his sons turning into sires themselves, he seems a bargain at $75,000, while the Tapits and War Fronts of the world are priced far higher. Malibu Moon has already sired a Kentucky Derby winner, Orb, and his list of graded stakes winning sons and daughters takes over his page in the Stallion Register.

His wonderful pedigree, free of both the Storm Cat line and the Unbridled line, says that he is likely to get a big horse from just about any good pedigree. Indeed, inbreeding to Mr. Prospector is rampant among his best get, as is inbreeding to Northern Dancer, as his dose of Nijinsky II, four generations back on his dams’ side, is the little black dress of pedigrees—it goes with anything, and goes anywhere.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention my own relationship with Malibu Moon. I own a Malibu Moon mare, out of a Grade 1 winning Gone West mare, and she is representative of what he can create. With her huge hip, broad, heavily muscled chest, and gaskin like a body builder’s upper arm, she’s a gorgeous, stout mare with an intelligent temperament. She looks like Daddy, though without his irascibility. And a couple of years ago, I advised a client to breed his graded stakes winning mare to Malibu Moon, and got a beautiful baby—just ask the KBIF/KTDF representative who came out to inspect it.

Spendthrift declares Malibu Moon to be “A.P. Indy’s Leading Sire,” and, though he may not be as flashy as Tapit, or as fashionable as Flatter or Congrats, his greatness cannot be questioned. With the recent loss of Giant’s Causeway, Malibu Moon is certainly the eminence gris of stallions. If Magnum Moon wins the Derby, expect his father’s stud fee to reflect it, making this the year to breed to Malibu Moon. If his book isn’t already full.

— Roberta Smoodin

Commenting upon a post parade on TVG, Simon Bray said, “I’ve never met a Scat Daddy I didn’t like.” Most horsemen share this opinion these days. In what has been called the deepest Kentucky Derby crop in recent memory, after a spate of lightweight fields, the late Scat Daddy, with his penultimate crop, stands out. Two will surely be in the field, and they are both thrilling colts—Justify and Mendelssohn. In only his third lifetime start, Justify easily beat Bolt D’Oro in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, with Mike Smith chilly and still in the irons. Some may argue that Mendelssohn didn’t win over much of a field in the UAE Derby-G2 on Dubai World Cup day, but his 18 length victory, his first time on dirt, left him neither breathing hard nor sweating. He could have gone around again, with the same result. Being slightly more than a half-sibling to both the great Champion Beholder and sire sensation Into Mischief, it’s no wonder that, after spirited bidding, Coolmore/Ashford took the colt home for three million dollars (and he now appears to be worth every penny). Justify was no slouch in the auction ring either, fetching $500,000 from a partnership headed by China Horse Club. Of course, the Derby frequently besmirches the records of favorites and disdains famous horses, but these two Scat Daddy colts have so thrilled racing fans that it’s difficult to get excited about any other horse.

Scat Daddy died in late 2015, as he was about to stand for his highest stud fee, $100,000, having been listed for as low as $10,000 early in his career. Known for getting juvenile stakes winners, his popularity grew exponentially, to the point that Ashford Stud, where he stood, kept a waiting list for seasons to only two stallions, him and their perennially popular (and, sadly, now deceased) Giant’s Causeway. Neither his sire, Johannesburg, nor his grandsire, Hennessy, are known as sires of sires, yet Scat Daddy became a superstar. His pedigree, with its inbreeding to Mr. Prospector through two of his daughters, and to Northern Dancer through his son whom the Storm Cat line loves, Nijinsky II, also features Ogygian on the sire’s side, bringing to the table both Damascus and the important Francis S. mare Gonfalon, who offers several of the strengths that both Justify and Mendelssohn’s pedigrees echo, including Princequillo, La Troienne, Mahmoud, and the half siblings Bois Roussel, Admiral Drake and Marguerite de Valois, these latter three being especially important as they are also half siblings to Bull Dog and Sir Gallahad III. Fans of the film “The Big Lebowski” will remember the line, “that rug really pulled the room together.” Ogygian really pulls the pedigrees of both Justify and Mendelssohn together.

John Guenther of Glennwood Farm must be congratulated for breeding Justify. The gorgeous chestnut colt’s pedigree is a marvel of riches and clever doublings and triplings of important relatives designed to promote both speed and endurance. Further inbreeding to Mr. Prospector and Nijinsky exists in many of Scat Daddy’s top offspring, and Justify gives us this as well, and more.

The most ingenious and striking aspect of Justify’s pedigree is the placement, 4 x 4, on both top and bottom sides, of the full sisters Preach and Narrate. Both are genetic masterpieces, being by Honest Pleasure (whose pedigree boasts Bold Ruler, Mahmoud’s daughter Grey Flight, and Plucky Liege’s son Bois Roussel), and out of the Nijinsky II mare State, who herself is out of Monarchy, by Round Table. Narrate, (1980), is the second dam of Johannesburg. Preach (1989), on the dam’s side, is the mother of one of A.P. Indy’s greatest sons, Pulpit. Justify’s second dam, Mystical Illusion, is a daughter of Pulpit. For good measure, both the top side and the bottom side of Justify’s pedigree have another dose of Nijinsky II, on top through Likeable Style, a Nijinsky daughter, Scat Daddy’s second dam, and on bottom through Baldski, a Nijinsky son, and the sire of Justify’s third dam, Voodoo Lily. Add to that the appearance in the dam’s side of For the Moment, Honest Pleasure’s full brother, as the sire of Justify’s fourth dam, and this pattern of inbreeding to siblings and half-siblings becomes clear (and admirable).

In past columns, it has been noted that accumulation of the offspring of the Spearmint mare Plucky Liege results in great race horses, and that more variety among her offspring in pedigrees cements this strength. Justify’s pedigree has more Plucky Liege in it than any I’ve ever seen: 15 doses of Bull Dog, 10 of his full brother Sir Gallahad III, three doses of their half-brother Bois Roussel, two of another half-brother Admiral Drake, and the key ancestor, Plucky Liege’s daughter Marguerite de Valois, making a single cameo appearance with her half-brothers. Just as Nijinsky through both sons and daughters offers the valuable zig zag pattern and enhances the probability of the large heart gene being passed on through a daughter, so too does this occur with this array of Plucky Liege’s offspring. Add to this three times tracing back to the great Frizette, through Mr. Prospector and Seattle Slew, one of the most powerful combinations in contemporary pedigrees because of their common female ancestor, and numerous doses of La Troienne, who complements Plucky Liege’s family because she, like Bull Dog and Sir Gallahad, is by Teddy, and it becomes clear that this pedigree was created by a master craftsman.

What more can be said about Mendelssohn’s pedigree? He is a half-brother (and a smidge more) to the great Beholder, who was by Henny Hughes, a daughter of Hennessy, Scat Daddy’s grandfather. He is also a half-sibling (and a smidge more) to sire sensation Into Mischief, who, being by Harlan’s Holiday, comes from the same Storm Cat lineage as Scat Daddy once more. Broodmare of the Year Leslie’s Lady, the dam of all three of these amazing thoroughbreds, boasts an interesting combination of American speed and classic stamina in her pedigree. Her sire, Tricky Creek, was by Clever Trick, out of the wonderful mare Kankakee Miss, and brought speed, without distance, to the table. But Tricky Creek’s dam was Battle Creek Girl, by His Majesty, who with his full brother by Ribot as well, Graustark, is one of the primary stamina influences in American pedigrees. Battle Creek Girl’s dam was Far Beyond, by Nijinsky II, echoing the doubling and tripling of this great, just as in Justify’s pedigree.

Garnish this with some powerful Turn-to, through Stop the Music, and another dose of Northern Dancer, through One for All, complementing the wild strain of Nearctic through his son Icecapade, the sire of Clever Trick, and Mendelssohn clearly has a wonderful mixed salad of genetic material, giving him his ability to run on turf and dirt, long and short. It should also be noted that Mendelssohn’s dam’s side offers similar doses of Plucky Liege, through Bull Dog, Sir Gallahad III, and Admiral Drake, as well as La Troienne.

Need I mention that both Justify and Mendelssohn are drop dead gorgeous, with heads and eyes radiating nobility and intelligence? Justify may be lightly raced, which some would consider a curse for a horse entering the Kentucky Derby, and Mendelssohn may be more of a turf horse who beat an undistinguished field in Dubai. But I, for one, may put a couple of dollars on a Scat Daddy exacta box come Derby day, after admiring these two handsome hunks in the post parade. I too have never met a Scat Daddy I didn’t like.

With the leading freshman sire race about to get underway for 2018, Will Take Charge looks like a natural to me. He’s about the handsomest stallion you will ever lay eyes on—he is mindbogglingly good looking, in a very masculine way, and has bone and conformation to spare. I loved him on the race track, and was knocked out when I saw him in person. I know Three Chimneys has put together a terrific inaugural book for him, and his yearlings sold very well last year. No other freshman class stallion of 2018 could touch him in terms of looks and race record. The only other stallion whose looks can compare, in my opinion, was Union Rags, and we all know how his first crop turned out, and continues to turn out. The 2019 freshman sire race surely is American Pharoah’s to lose (though Triple Crown winners have been hit and miss as sires—Seattle Slew vs Affirmed and Secretariat).

That said, we have, this year, two knockouts beginning their careers as stallions, Arrogate and Gun Runner, and it seems likely that they will duke it out for reigning freshman sire three years from now. The question is, which one will be more successful? Can we make a prediction based on pedigree, race record, and looks? Maybe not, but I’d sure like to try.

Arrogate and Gun Runner have similar stud fees—in the $70,000 to $75,000 range, not at all out of line for horses with their accomplishments. Both are from sire lines that have yet to prove themselves as lines that will have a continuing influence on the breed, like A.P. Indy and Storm Cat are certain to do. Unbridled’s Song was known for both his size and good looks and the huge variation in the ability of his runners—his good race horses were very good, and the rest were useful at best. Much like Secretariat, he seems destined to make a mark on the breed through his daughters, who have proven themselves to be outstanding broodmares. Nevertheless, Unbridled’s Song seems to me to be due to have a son hit, and the two most worthy inheritors are without doubt Will Take Charge and Arrogate.

Gun Runner hails from the same sire line as Arrogate, but through a totally separate branch of that tree. His great-grandsire is Fappiano, the same as Arrogate’s, but Gun Runner inherits his Fappiano through Cryptoclearance, a useful stallion but not nearly as influential as Unbridled, Arrogate’s grandpa. It’s worth noting that both Unbridled’s Song and Candy Ride have relatively undignified female families, that haven’t gotten much else besides these two exceptional stallions. Candy Ride, six years younger than the deceased Unbridled’s Song, has yet to get that outstanding son who will brand him as a sire of sires, though Misremembered, Sidney’s Candy and Twirling Candy have marked themselves as young stallions to keep an eye on. So the similarities between Arrogate and Gun Runner continue to multiply, and continue to raise doubt.

The answer may lie in the female families of each young stallion. Arrogate’s third dam is the wonderful Meadow Star, millionaire and Champion Two-Year-Old Filly, winner of 11 races at two and three including such Grade One wins as the Mother Goose S., Acorn S., Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Frizette S., Spinaway S., and Matron S. She was a great racehorse. And though she couldn’t reproduce anything like herself, much like my beloved Zenyatta as of now, she was the grandmother of millionaire and multiple Grade One winner Belle Gallantey, and the great-grandmother of Arrogate, so clearly the gene pool continues to produce. The key to Arrogate’s female family, however, remains hidden in Meadow Star’s dam, the In Reality mare Inreality Star, and in his dam’s great-great-grandfather, Mr. Prospector. Both of these reflect the same influences in Unbridled’s Song’s pedigree, and this doubling has been inordinately successful in breeding racehorses, most recently the also-gorgeous and also super-fast Liam’s Map. Though this echo of Mr. P and In Reality may account for Arrogate’s success on the track, does it insure his success at stud?

Juddmonte seems determined to see to that. They recently announced that such mares as Songbird, Paulassilverlining, Perfectforthpart, Lucas Street, Centre Court, Sortilege, Plum Pretty, She Be Wild and Lady of Fifty were in foal to their champ. With such broodmare sires as Ghostzapper, Medaglia d’Oro, Smart Strike, and various sons of Storm Cat represented in that list, Juddmonte’s superb expertise of pedigree would seem to give Arrogate an edge in the 2019 freshman sire contest. Never before has Juddmonte so aggressively acquired race mares, specifically to breed to Arrogate, with Paulasilverlining being the poster girl for that campaign, with her dose of In Reality, Mr. Prospector, and an added doubling of Deputy Minister. I can’t wait to see that foal race in the Juddmonte colors!

Gun Runner’s female family is also rife with great black type, coming, as he does, out of a graded stakes placed Giant’s Causeway dam, from the family of Horse of the Year Saint Liam, and with Flight Dancer as his fourth dam. The most interesting part of Gun Runner’s dams’ side is that the second dam, Quiet Dance, is by Quiet American, thereby doubling the Fappiano in his pedigree. A similar cross created Bernardini’s Grade One winner Greenpoint crusader, who is out of a Cryptoclearance mare, making him 4 x 3 Fappiano, through Quiet American and Cryptoclearance. Gun Runner is 3 x 3 Fappiano, and we know this cross has worked. Given the surfeit of In Reality blood in American bloodstock, Gun Runner seems poised to do well with mares that bring In Reality, in any form other than Fappiano, to the table. And both young stallions seem ideal for the addition of a touch of Nijinsky II.

With such similar race records (Breeders’ Cup Classic and Pegasus S. exacta to their credits) and similar earnings, one finds oneself looking for minutiae. Arrogate has La Troienne through Buckpasser; Gun Runner has Somethingroyal through Storm Cat. Arrogate has Northern Dancer through Danzig and Vice Regent; Gun Runner has him through Lyphard. Each beat the other in epic runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

I began writing this certain I would come to the conclusion that one of these magnificent beasts was clearly the better prospect to succeed when his first crop hits the track, but the more I study, the more this race becomes a dead heat in terms of my crystal ball. I prefer the Unbridled branch of the Fappiano tree to the Cryptoclearance branch, because, having seen both in the flesh, Unbridled had that heart-beating-faster factor, being huge and mighty and imperious, while Cryptoclearance didn’t. Does the look of eagles mean anything? Probably not. With the backing of the might Judddmonte broodmare band, including mares acquired specifically to breed to Arrogate, I’d have to give the slight edge to Arrogate, but, that said, I can’t wait to see examples of both of their first crops next fall.

— Roberta Smoodin

Thanks to Thoroughbred People contributor and bloodstock consultant Roberta Smoodin for this article. Roberta offers pedigree analysis for sales and breeding recommendation services for your broodmares – please contact Roberta at [email protected] for more information.

An unlikely star emerged from the first crop of Adena Springs Kentucky’s stallion, Capo Bastone (Street Boss/Fight to Love). In the second race at Keeneland on April 11, 2018, Hargus won a maiden special weight for two-year-olds by 2 ½ lengths, earning $26,820. Capo Bastone stands for $4,000, and wasn’t on anybody’s radar as a freshman sire to watch.

The colt was named after near-legendary Kentucky hard boot and breeder Hargus Sexton, who died last year at 96. Opinionated, tough-minded and fiercely loyal as a friend, Hargus Sexton himself was a monument to the thoroughbred industry in Kentucky, and when his longtime friend Danny Pate acquired the Capo Bastone colt in an unusual sharing deal with breeder John Stuart, even he didn’t have high hopes. Pate put the colt through the 2017 Fasig Tipton October Yearling Sale, with a modest reserve of $9,000, but the colt got not a single bid, and went through the ring and back to Pate.

Pate sent the colt to two-year-old specialist Wesley Ward for training, and named him after his friend who had so recently passed on.

Capo Bastone, it should be noted, has a two-year-old foal crop of only four registered foals. By coincidence, he was co-bred by the late Hargus Sexton himself. Ward will be taking the equine Hargus to Churchill in May, and then, perhaps, on to Ascot.

— Roberta Smoodin

If one were to design the ideal horse, the result might very well be Giant’s Causeway, whose death at 21 on April 16, 2018 marks a great loss for the thoroughbred horse industry. Without question Storm Cat’s best son at stud, his sons and daughters have thrived on the race track and in the breeding shed themselves; a Giant’s Causeway mare is the dam of the great Gun Runner.

European Horse of the Year and Champion Three-Year-Old Colt, he was also a three-time champion sire, equaling Danzig’s record. He never finished worse than second, running 13 times with nine wins and four seconds. One of those second-place finishes is forever engraved in memory: the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic that he lost to Tiznow in a furious battle down the stretch. Who knows what the outcome might have been had Mick Kinane, Giant’s Causeway’s jockey, not dropped a rein, leaving the horse obviously puzzled, awaiting a cue from his rider that did not come. Giant’s Causeway fought Tiznow on his own courage and grit, and came close to besting him.

Named for a rock formation off the northern coast of Ireland, and out of the Rahy mare Mariah’s Storm, the aptly nicknamed Iron Horse stood his first season at Coolmore Ireland, before coming to America to stand the rest of his long career at Ashford Stud. When representatives of his first crop went through the sales ring at Keeneland, there was a bit of disappointment: they seemed to be light boned and “pretty” rather than stout, but as soon as they started running, all doubts were quelled. He had three graded/group stakes winners from his first crop, and eight from his second, including four Group/Grade 1 winners. His career has been marked by 178 black type winners, of which 104 were graded or group winners.

He received his nickname, The Iron Horse, when, under the tutelage of Aidan O’Brien, he won five consecutive Group 1 races in England and Ireland in 11 weeks at three years of age. He was also undefeated in his first four starts at two years of age, including a Group 1 win.

A beautiful, elegant chestnut who bore no signs of advancing age, Giant’s Causeway posed for visitors at Ashford with aplomb, as a king should. His passing marks a milestone in thoroughbred breeding, as he has left behind an amazing record of success in every aspect of this business.

Watch Giant’s Causeway run in the 2000 Breeders Cup Classic Here

The Might of Giant’s Causeway Here

— Roberta Smoodin