Within moments of his facile victory in the Belmont Stakes making him the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years, the inevitable and tricky comparisons between American Pharoah and the three great Triple Crown winners of the 1970s began… The general consensus seems to be that while some believe that American Pharoah may perhaps be on a par with Seattle Slew and Affirmed, he is just not in the same league as Secretariat.
While I am as impressed by that amazing and legendary big red colt from 1973 as anyone else, I am not at all sure that Pharoah is inferior. Here’s why.
1) Much is made of Secretariat’s 31 length margin of victory and the winning track record time of 2.24 flat. And so it should be, it was a phenomenal time. American Pharoah ran the second fastest Belmont ever in 2.26.6. That is approximately ten lengths slower than Secretariat’s 1973 time of 2.24.
Or is it? In an article in The Bloodhorse June 20th edition, EQB president Jeff Seder revealed that he believes that the main track at Belmont Park in 2015 is a significantly slower racetrack than the one over which Secretariat ran 2.24 in 1973, saying that the current Belmont track now has four more inches of sand in the cushion than the Belmont track had in it back then.
What is that worth in terms of time? It could be worth more, but let’s be conservative and suggest it takes off one second. So we are at 2.25.6.
2) Victor Espinoza has said he has been asked by Bob Baffert to never win by too far on American Pharoah. Victor is adamant that he could have won the Belmont by significantly further. How much further? Pharoah was absolutely cantering coming round the final turn under a firm hold. Let’s suggest instead of holding on to him that Victor had asked him for full run at that point and opened up on American Pharoah then, rather than when he just gently asked him for minimum effort at the furlong pole, 300 yards later. Could we see Pharoah taking six or eight more lengths out of the field as a result? Certainly. There is another second to a second and a half off the 2.26.6.
Now we are getting real close to Secretariat’s 2.24.
3) The competition. Frosted. Materiality. Mubtaahij. In a field of eight, three proven Grade 1 Stakes Winners were taken on by American Pharoah in the Belmont. Time may reveal that Frosted is one of the best horses that Kieren McGlaughlin has ever trained. Mike De Kock’s Mubtaahij is highly rated by his trainer. Trying to roll with American Pharoah early saw Materiality run below his best, but the other two ran well.
Yet they were made to look like claimers by Pharoah.
Secretariat took on a field of five in his Belmont. Only one was of significant quality, Sham. Sham was a great horse at his best, but he clearly wanted no part of a mile and a half and ran so far below form that day that he couldn’t even beat the three hopeless longshots and finished dead last. So if the real Sham did not show up in the Belmont, what exactly did Secretariat beat by 31 lengths? And how far would American Pharoah have thrashed those very mediocre horses? Is it conceivable that they could have received an equally impressive drubbing from him?
4) The early fractions. For most horses, the faster the early pace, the slower they come home. The early Belmont fractions were sensible for the distance, 1.13 and change for the six furlongs and 1.38 (1.37.99) for the mile. From a 1.38 mile it would be almost impossible to finish in 2.24 for the mile and a half. That would mean running the last half mile in 46 flat…. (I am actually not entirely sure that American Pharoah could not have done that.) As it is, American Pharoah cruised it in a nonchalant 48. Like it was a stroll in the park. He could have come up into the grandstand to sign a few autographs as he came into the stretch and still won… So effortless was his victory and so obviously did he get the mile and a half trip, I would bet that even if he had gone the mile in 1.36, if asked, he could still have run the last half in the 48 flat required.
And Voila. There is your Secretariat time of 2.24. On a track slowed down by four inches more cushion than it had in 1973, no less.
Secretariat was an awesome, incredible racehorse. But many talk of him as if he was an unbeatable individual and conveniently forget that he was beaten on five separate occasions. He won his Derby and Preakness in a not unusual two and a half lengths. Scratch him from the Belmont and he would not be revered the way he is. Nonetheless, he still deserves to be spoken of in the same breath as War Admiral, Sea Biscuit, Citation, Native Dancer, Whirlaway et al. Time will tell that American Pharoah deserves the same.
Am I wrong about this? Am I overrating this American Pharoah? I could be, but I don’t think I am. He won’t be around much longer and I would rather appreciate and understand what I am seeing now, as it happens before my own two eyes, rather than in years to come. When folks finally realize how good this horse was.
Watch American Pharoah win the Belmont again here
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