Amidst fears that the relatively shaky state of our economy due to the possibility of recession and the trade war with China, and the Brexit-affair in the European Union, would affect the returns of the 2019 Keeneland September Sale, Dubai came to the rescue. The ruling Makhtoum family of Dubai, personified by Sheikh Mohammad and his brother, Sheikh Hamdan, with no cash flow issues, clearly saw opportunity, and spent big money on the top yearlings of Book One.
Sheikh Mohammad, under the name Godolphin, purchased ten head, for a gross of $16,000,000, while Sheikh Hamdan, using his farm name, Shadwell, purchased 18 head for a total of $11,070,000, creating a virtual monopoly for the top hips numbers over the first two days of the sale, though their impact was far less during Book One’s final, third session. Their presence and buying power altered the gross, average and median of Book One’s tally.
One other event, and one single lot, further altered the course of the sale. Hip number 498 stood out as the collector’s item of the entire sale, as the filly, by leading freshman sire American Pharoah, is a half-sister to leading sire Into Mischief, Champion Beholder, new sire and G1 winner Mendelssohn, all of whom are out of Broodmare of the Year, Leslie’s Lady. This first dam’s stellar offspring took up the entire catalogue page of the filly. Intense bidding transpired, with Mandy Pope of Whisper Hill Farm not to be denied, even though she battled Sheikh Mohammad and billionaire B. Wayne Hughes, master of Spendthrift Farm and owner of Beholder and Into Mischief. This led to a record filly price of $8,200,000, and, together with the Makhtoum expenditures, also led to a high gross for Book One of $160,463,000, an average of $471,950, and a median of $355,000,000. Keeneland, needless to say, was thrilled, though it’s difficult to compare these buoyant numbers to last year’s first book, as Keeneland tinkered with the arrangement of the top lots, shrinking last year’s four-day first book to three days, each of them featuring fewer hip numbers than last year’s Book One.
A look at the statistics, while eliminating these anomalies, becomes necessary. Keeneland’s statistics include 340 yearlings sold, with a gross of $160,463,000, an average of $471,950 and a median of $355,000, as noted above. The Makhtoums alone purchased 28 head, for a total of $27,070,000. Add to that the record-setting $8,200,000 filly, and we can subtract from that gross total $35,270,000, and 29 yearlings from the total sold, to get a clearer idea of how strong this sale was.
With these anomalies subtracted, the gross for the sale becomes $125,193,000, and the number sold becomes 311. The average is therefore lowered from Keeneland’s assessment to $402,550, but the median, a truer measure of the sale’s strength because it eliminates the highest and lowest lots, is a more robust $400,624, and if the strength of a sale is measured by a lack of discrepancy between the average and the median, this sale was, indeed, a home run. Eliminating the anomalies of the Makhtoum buying spree and Mandy Pope’s record setting filly indicates a strong foundation to this sale in Book One. Now, the test will be what happens in subsequent books. Normally, with the big buyers gone after Book One, the sale has lately indicated a weakened middle and lower market, and we have no indication that this will be altered.
On the leading sires front, Curlin was king. Twenty-seven Curlin yearlings sold, with an average price of $697,222, and a gross of $18,825,000. His top selling lots, in general, looked like two-year-olds ready for the race track: large, strong, muscular, big-boned individuals who filled the front sales ring with their presence. In order, the next leading sires were American Pharoah, Into Mischief, Uncle Mo, Tapit, and Pioneer of the Nile.
However, the anomalous single lot, the $8,200,000 filly, skews the results for American Pharoah and the other leading sires. Subtract that filly from American Pharoah’s results, and his average for his other 25 lots is lowered to $374,000, and his gross becomes $9,365,500, which would actually lower his standing among leading sires to sixth, behind his sire, Pioneer of the Nile. This also makes his 2019 average well below his average and status in the 2018 Keeneland September Sale, in which he was the leading sire, with 12 head sold for an average of $527,917, for a total gross of $6,335,000.
In general, it was clear that the initial luster was off the American Pharoah yearlings in this sale, whether the fault lay in the individuals chosen for this select portion of the sale, or buyers’ lack of interest. The latter is hard to believe, because American Pharoah is the leading freshman sire, though the fault might lie in the fact that, thus far, American Pharoah’s first crop to race seems to be excelling on grass rather than on dirt, perhaps making him less attractive to those wanting to race in North America, on dirt.
Tapit falling to the fifth position among leading sires in Book One was interesting, as he had long been the leading sire at the sale before 2018. His best individuals going through the ring were magnificent, while some were noticeably lesser. As a viewer without access to scopes and x-rays, though, this is difficult to assess. Like the yearlings by Curlin, the Into Mischief yearlings were a uniformly attractive bunch, but their value was boosted by Larry Best’s belief in their inherent “heart,” as well as by big purchases of his yearlings by the Makhtoums.
The other sire whose get stood out was Uncle Mo, who makes, like Curlin, a big, muscular, mature-looking yearling. Those who most resembled their sire, who is statuesque and handsome beyond belief, fetched the best prices. Honor Code’s offspring retained their appeal, though his first crop hasn’t yet excelled, and he is stamping them with his own good looks.
Among freshman sires, Darley’s youngsters Nyquist and Frosted stood out in terms of attractiveness to buyers, and both had some outstanding looking yearlings. But the leading freshman sire was Claiborne’s Runhappy, whose yearlings looked the part, and who no doubt has been bolstered by his owner, Jim McIngvale, whose relentless PR campaign for his prized new stallion, including race sponsorships, TVG endlessly featuring his name, and the $100,000 maiden special weight bonus for his two-year-olds next year at select tracks, has got to be a factor in Runhappy’s yearling success.
We will be better able to assess trends after Book Two for the top level offerings. However, this Book One presented some fascinating threads to follow in terms of stallions’ popularity and buyers’ beliefs. With the top buyers absent, the continuing sale has much to prove, in terms of whether or not it has legs. The top of the market is always the most fun to observe, because of the super wealthy and their desire to spend their money, but it is the rest of the sale that will truly establish the nature of the market for thoroughbred yearlings.
— Roberta Smoodin