Every year, the Fasig-Tipton July Sale provides us with our first glimpse into which sires are hot and which are not. In the Cretaceous period when dinosaurs roamed the earth, some of us old timers will remember that Keeneland also had a select July sale (Fusaichi Pegasus sold in this sale), and Fasig began its July sale with what it called its “New Sires Showcase,” in which first and second crop sires were sold before the well-known and reliable sires’ offspring were auctioned. Now, freshman sires’ offspring are scattered through the single day sale, making this first select sale of the yearling season more egalitarian: a good horse is a good horse.
In case you don’t know, a lot of work goes into compiling the catalogue for the July Fasig-Tipton sale. First, your horse must pass pedigree muster by the Fasig staff. If your yearling’s pedigree is considered worthy, Fasig will send out a staff member to look at the horse, no matter where in the country this yearling might be. It’s a massive task that allows buyers to rest assured that the chosen yearlings are physically and conformationally correct and, these days, that they have that look—they’re big and precocious looking, resembling two-year olds ready for next year’s breeze up sales. Though throat and bone issues may turn up before sale time, and accidents happen because yearlings can’t be packed in bubble wrap, the yearlings in this select sale will be uniformly good looking.
It’s easy to pick a Tapit or Uncle Mo or War Front to put into a select sale. The real riddle which must be solved by Fasig is which freshmen sires are worthy of inclusion? A freshman sire’s offspring is all promise and hope and dream, so my guess would be that those chosen for this sale must be exceptionally handsome. We get, therefore, our first view of the freshman sire landscape when we see their yearlings in this sale, and can make projections based on those chosen. In this year’s sale, 38% of the yearlings are by freshman sires, which Boyd Browning of Fasig has said is higher than usual. Of 349 entries, 132 are by new sires. What freshman sires seem to be excelling in putting out first crop fire crackers?
The first determinant in this analysis is what sire line does each freshman sire belong to? Which sire lines are sending their DNA into the future of horse racing, and which aren’t? The new sires divide themselves into three basic groups: the A.P. Indy line, the Northern Dancer line, and the Mr. Prospector line, not exactly news hot off the presses. What’s interesting is what branches of these three lines are thriving in getting select yearlings into the July sale, and which aren’t.
A.P. Indy, his sons, and his grandsons rule among freshman sires, as 43 of their offspring are featured. The grand old man himself has two sons represented, Commissioner, with nine, and Honor Code, with only one. Though I’m surprised that only a single Honor Code made the cut, Lane’s End is represented by a very small offering of four yearlings at this sale, and usually saves its best for the opening days of Keeneland September. Honor Code is gorgeous, so I suspect we will see many more of them at Keeneland, in the usually huge Lane’s End consignment. A.P. Indy’s son Pulpit once seemed to be the next in line for the throne, but he is represented by only a single freshman sire, Mr. Speaker, who nonetheless had five yearlings selected.
The star of the new sires from this line is no surprise: Tapit. A son of Pulpit, and therefore a grandson of A.P. Indy, his stud fee puts him in the rarified air of Mount Olympus for the vast majority of breeders, but access to his sons at stud is readily available. Sons of Tapit newly at stud account for 26 yearlings, the most of stallion: Constitution has eight in the sale, Tapiture has 13, and Race Day has five. Tapiture becomes the best represented freshman sire in the sale, though he leads Competitive Edge (by Super Saver) by only a single yearling. Competitive Edge, who stands at Ashford Stud, has benefited from Ashford’s marketing strategy of getting huge books of a wide variety of mares for their new sires. Such sires as Uncle Mo, Shanghai Bobby, Munnings, Lookin’ at Lucky and Stay Thirsty have topped or nearly topped freshman sire lists because of this strategy. From this angle, the freshman sire topper of next year should be either Tapiture or Competitive Edge.
May we still consider the Northern Dancer sire line as a single entity? Or have his grandsons and great grandsons established their own lines, much as Fappiano is now distinguished from Mr. Prospector by many? Let’s look at it from both perspectives. The once dominant Storm Cat line has dwindled, especially with the recent demise of Giant’s Causeway. In fact, the Iron Horse is the only Storm Cat son whose sons and grandsons continue as stallions in this sale, with his son, Carpe Diem, represented by five yearlings, and his grandson, Lea, represented by three. Maryland freshman sire by Giant’s Causeway Imagining has a single yearling in the sale.
Certainly, Medaglia d’Oro is fascinating as a prospective sire of sires, and, like Tapit, is so expensive to breed to that most of us who want some of his blood will be seriously looking at his very handsome sons now at stud. He may be the next big thing, but at this point, his only representative in this sale is Fast Anna, who stands at Three Chimneys for only $7500, a bargain stud fee for a select yearling; four of Fast Anna’s offspring made it into the sale. This confirms early gossip among breeders when Fast Anna first went to stud that he was exceptionally good looking and well made, and had certainly been precocious.
Finally, the other representative of the Northern Dancer sire line featured in the July sale is Danzig, once considered a dead end with the utter failure at stud of his gorgeous, talented son Lure. Then, out of the blue, War Front, from humble beginnings, came to the forefront of stallion ranks and, as with Tapit and Medaglia d’Oro, is now too expensive for most of our checkbooks. But his sons are standing everywhere, and represented in this sale by three by Jack Milton, and seven by Summer Front. Danzig’s legacy also continues through his hard knocking son, Hard Spun, whose own son, Wicked Strong, hero of the Wood Memorial S.-G1 and the Jim Dandy S.-G2, has seven of his offspring in the sale.
Much as A.P. Indy has become the only Seattle Slew son to continue to affect the direction of thoroughbred breeding, it may be necessary to think of the Storm Cat, Medaglia d’Oro and Danzig lines as defining their own breed-altering lines. Think of all the sons of Slew who once stood at stud, and who are now all but forgotten: Slew o’Gold, Slew City Slew, Houston, Capote, etc. Just as many, if not more, sons of Northern Dancer dominated stud ranks for decades. That his influence has now dwindled to these three lines, Storm Cat, Medaglia d’Oro, and Danzig, would lead me to believe that Northern Dancer is now much less of a factor than his sons and grandsons who are carving out their own territory among prominent stallions. It is also worth noting that together, these representatives of Northern Dancer number only 29 in the entire freshman sire class—only three more than represent Tapit alone.
Though in terms of freshman representation at this sale Mr. Prospector garners only 18 select entrants, there is hope for specific branches of this family in terms of new sire representation. The Fappiano branch seem to have the most vitality, but it all emerges through the influence of his son, Unbridled. With the great Empire Maker still active and virile, he seems certain to carry on producing some wonderful sons, and he is represented in this catalogue by his son Sky Kingdom (three entrants) and by great grandsons by Unbridled’s Song such as Liam’s Map (one entrant). Unbridled was also the sire of Eddington, whom Claiborne sold to California when his offspring failed to make a good showing, but he is represented by his son, Secret Circle, with two entrants. The question remains: will Unbridled’s Song prove to be a sire of sires? It’s too early to tell, but thus far a star son of that great stallion hasn’t emerged, and his sons at stud have been disappointing, perhaps the reason for the poor showing in this catalogue. It is also worth noting that in both the A.P. Indy line and the Unbridled line, a single stallion from days of yore makes his mark in terms of speed and soundness: the great Buckpasser. And a single tail-female mare, the Blue Hen Frizette.
Some grandsons of Mr. Prospector himself also appear in this catalogue. Carson City, whose son City Zip is represented by Palace with eight yearlings, appear, as does Forty-Niner through his son, Distorted Humor, with his son Khozan (two yearlings) and Street Cry, through his son Street Boss, the sire of freshman stallion Danza, who is represented by a single entry.
If you saw Mr. Prospector’s son Smart Strike in his dotage, you would have been unimpressed. A plain bay with a big head, arthritis, and laminitic front feet that demanded special therapeutic shoeing, he was no beauty contest winner. And yet he sired two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, whose slow start at stud has now been replaced by superstardom. Curlin doesn’t resemble his drab sire in any way: he is a big, flashy chestnut with chrome, whose stud fee is now at $150,000. Only 14 years old, Curlin appears to be the future king of the Mr. Prospector branch of stallions, if one considers Fappiano to be representative of his own sire line. In-breeding to Mr. Prospector through Fappiano appears to be working well, which would seem to prove this point. For now, Curlin is represented by his son, freshman sire Palace Malice, with seven yearlings, but it seems possible to imagine a future in which sons of Curlin standing at stud are as plentiful as sons of Storm Cat once were.
Competitive Edge, a precocious son of Super Saver, was mentioned above as the only representative of that sire line with multiple yearlings in this sale. There are two other interesting one-offs. More Than Ready’s son Daredevil, winner of the Champagne S.-G1 at two, has six yearlings in the sale. A bargain at $7500, Winstar went out on a limb with an unusual ad campaign for this horse’s first crop, showing foals photoshopped doing adventurous activities that caught the eye; this kind of thinking out of the box is unusual in the thoroughbred business, whose advertising is usually a bland blend of statistics and conformation photos, or race photos. Kudos to them for getting this young stallion a first book of mares good enough to garner him this representation at Fasig. The other one-off sire line that must be mentioned is that of Indian Charlie, whose son, Uncle Mo, has set the stallion world on fire. Indian Charlie is represented by only Conveyance, with four entries, but sons of Uncle Mo went to stud this year, so this line seems certain to continue to achieve.
Now, all that remains is for the sale to happen, so we can see the results. And await the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select catalogue, and the Keeneland September catalogue, which should fill in the blanks, and give us that desired glimpse into the future of stallions and sire lines. I feel certain that, as usual, a wild card freshman sire may emerge to challenge all of our expectations—that’s part of the fun of prognosticating.
— Roberta Smoodin
Thanks to Thoroughbred People contributor and bloodstock consultant Roberta Smoodin for this article. Roberta offers pedigree analysis for sales and breeding recommendation services for your broodmares – please contact Roberta at [email protected] for more information.