The first day of Keeneland September usually demonstrates that nobody knows anything. Consignors, unsure about the market, set reserves too high and end up bringing yearlings home, no doubt to unhappy owners. Buyers know just as little, and wait to put their hands up in the pavilion, thinking the market will stabilize, find its own comfort zone, after day one, so that they will get their dollar’s worth. With a 35% buy back rate (25% is considered high), the first day of the epic Keeneland September Sale of 2018 demonstrates that the usual suspects with the deepest pockets – Godolphin, Coolmore, Don Alberto Stables – fear not, and plunge right into the competition for the best. There is much to be learned from day one, however.
There can be no surprise that the leading sire, and of course leading first crop sire, at the sale was American Pharoah, who had 12 yearlings sell for an average of $527,000 – this ranking, it must be noted, is by gross rather than average or median. Then come the old stand-bys, the yearlings that sell well on day one no matter what – Tapit (averaging $864,000), Curlin ($654,000), Medaglia d’Oro ($592,000), followed by Pioneer of the Nile, Empire Maker (his first yearling crop since his return from Japan), and Quality Road.
In eighth place is the big surprise of day one – first crop sire Honor Code, who had 13 catalogued, three outs, and only one RNA (in a sale with a 35% buy back rate). His nine yearlings who sold averaged $261,000. Honor Code’s stud fee at Lane’s End is $40,000, making him the best investment in the top ten leading sires on day one. His top colt fetched $400,000; his lowest sold for $100,000. His yearlings outstripped such stalwarts as Uncle Mo and War Front in terms of average, and they did it without having a million-dollar baby drag the average up; they sold solidly and consistently. And they looked the part, being uniformly large and racy with a fancy bit of white, like their sire, and with generous bone and straight legs. Honor Code’s median was $236,000 – the lack of discrepancy between average and median demonstrates the consistent value these yearlings were seen to have by the very unstable marketplace of day one, making it all the more impressive. The very low buy-back rate for the Honor Code offspring indicates that consignors knew what they had, and on a day when moderation in reserves was key, set their prices accurately.
Lane’s End has a current young star in Quality Road, whom they have stood since he began his stud career, and their part in sending Curlin’s offspring into the stratosphere before he was moved to Hill ‘n’ Dale cannot be denied. The market, on its most chaotic day, has spoken, and anointed Honor Code as the next in line, and given his pedigree (by A.P. Indy, from the female family of the great Serena’s Song), and the good looks of his offspring, the market, even on day one, seems to have told the truth.
— Roberta Smoodin