An alien, landing on Earth on Saturday, February 16, 2019, to play the ponies, would’ve come to believe that only three stallions on the planet are worth breeding to (as Scat Daddy, the sire of Anothertwistafate, the El Camino Real Derby winner, is deceased), and this alien may be right.

Tapit, standing this year for $225,000 at Gainesway Farm, sired Silver Dust, the winner of the Mineshaft H.-G3 at the Fairgrounds, paying owner Tom Durant back for some of the $510,000 he gave for the colt at the 2016 Ocala Breeders’ Sale of two-year-olds. Then Synchrony took the Fairgrounds H.-G3, another win for a son of Tapit. Both of these winners have anomalous pedigrees for winning Tapit offspring, offering inbreeding to both Northern Dancer and Native Dancer, but without any inbreeding to In Reality and his relatives which we usually see in successful Tapit progeny.

Kingly, second in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields, offers a much more recognizable pedigree for top Tapits, featuring inbreeding to Northern Dancer through Nijinsky II and Storm Cat, and, more importantly, offering the full siblings Moon Glitter and Relaunch, with their In Reality strength. Tapit is simply an unstoppable force in the thoroughbred world.

A newer face in the galaxy of top sires is Blame, who also had two major stakes winners on the day, including Blamed, the winner at Gulfstream Park of the Royal Delta S.-G3. This filly’s pedigree features a Giant’s Causeway first dam, and an Unbridled second dam, drawing upon Blame’s strengths with Danzig and Alydar reaching out to the Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector described above.

Then, not more than a couple of hours later, Marley’s Freedom won the Santa Monica S.-G2 at Santa Anita in a thrilling, not-to-be-denied stretch run. Much like Blamed, Marley’s Freedom’s pedigree offers a similar pattern, underscoring the pedigree power of Blame with Miswaki (Mr. Prospector) and Chief’s Crown (Danzig) drawing upon Blame’s strengths, much like what was demonstrated in Blamed’s pedigree. Blame stands this year for $30,000 at Claiborne Farm, and seems like a terrific bargain given the way his offspring win and win and win.

Finally, a highly valued War Front colt, War of Will, survived the fourteen post position and came on to win the Risen Star S.-G2, the first serious Kentucky Derby prep of the season, going away. Owner Gary Barber said, before the race, “put him in the twenty hole and he’d still win.” Looks like this was very accurate fortune telling. The colt’s ability on dirt is the surprise. Out of a Sadler’s Wells dam and a Riverman second dam, his pedigree screams European and turf. He is also tail female Best in Show, his fifth dam, through her daughter Minnie Hauk, by Sir Ivor, one of the best families in the stud book, developed by Juddmonte Farm. Tried on grass without much success earlier in his career, War of Will switched to dirt and can’t stop winning. Seriously, you just never know—sometimes genes can be confounding. War Front, whose offspring at yearling sales frequently engender bidding wars ending in seven figure sales, stands for $250,000 at Claiborne Farm, and would seem to have a very serious Derby contender in this lovely colt, trained by Mark Casse.

With the running of the Risen Star S.-G2, War of Will gets fifty points toward his post in the Kentucky Derby. It is officially time to get Derby Fever, and War of Will has to be on everyone’s early favorite list. The rest of the list remains amorphous, full of colts that fuel our hopes and dreams, but are not yet stamped as serious contenders.

-- Roberta Smoodin