Once the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races have been run, an assessment of the leading freshman sires can finally be made, and this year, as usual, those results have skewed the leading freshman sires ranks, as Cross Traffic, with his filly Jaywalk (who also won the Frizette S.-G1) winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1, making her a millionaire in the process, and bringing his first crop earnings to $1,942,157.

The handsome son of Unbridled’s Song stands at Spendthrift, and his 2018 fee of $7500 has been raised for 2019 to $20,000. Jaywalk will almost certainly be named Champion Two-Year-Old filly, an achievement for any young sire with his first crop at the track, made even more interesting because he had only 91 current two-year-olds. The other freshman sires in positions two through four all had well over 100 in their first crops. It’s also worth noting that Cross Traffic’s yearling average was $33,776, a pittance compared to the first crop yearling skyrockets set off by the offspring of American Pharoah. Having a grade one winner and likely champion in his first crop, Cross Traffic looks poised to become an important sire, and perhaps the prized heir of Unbridled’s Song that breeders have been waiting for.

Second place is held by Goldencents, a son of Into Mischief, whose progeny have earned over a million dollars without any single dominating earner—there is no Jaywalk to catapult his earnings into first place, but he instead has had 22 winners and five black type stakes horses. More than this, though, Cross Traffic and Goldencents represent a Spendthrift exacta, a rare occurrence in freshman sire standings. Spendthrift is known for its creative approach to breeding, offering breeders many options to share in its young stallions without having to spend a fortune (sometimes, payment is even deferred until the weanling or yearling sells at public auction). B. Wayne Hughes has implemented and spearheaded alternative approaches for breeders, and this year’s freshman sire list reflects how well that creativity and flexibility work. Goldencents’ average yearling sold for $46,979, indicating that, like Cross Traffic, those first yearlings sold pretty well, though not into the rarefied air of the sires who inspired buyers as American Pharoah and others have.

Cairo Prince is in third place, with a yearling average of $151,657—Airdrie Stud, where he stands, supported his first foals brilliantly and tirelessly, and this handsome son of Pioneer of the Nile, standing for $25,000 initially, seemed poised to hit. His first crop earnings, thus far, are short of the million dollar mark reached by both Cross Traffic and Goldencents—at $866,198, and with his biggest earner, Cairo Cat, with only $133,750 to his credit, it would seem that buyers spent too much to guarantee a good return on investment from Cairo Prince. Though Cairo Prince himself was precocious, he did excel as a three-year-old as well, winning the Holy Bull S.-G2 by nearly six lengths, so it would seem too early to pass any sort of judgment on the offspring of this young stallion.

Fourth place cements another interesting trend in young sires, as it is held by Will Take Charge, one of the most gorgeous stallions you can lay eyes upon in the Bluegrass. This Champion Three-Year-Old Colt and winner of nearly four million dollars has a race record that includes wins in the Grade One Travers S. and Clark H., and a nose defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1. His first crop inherited his good looks, and averaged $151,931 for yearlings, making him the star sire of this freshman crop by selling price. His dams’ side is one of the hottest, featuring 2013 Broodmare of the Year, Take Charge Lady, by Dehere, and a Rubiano second dam, making him double-bred Fappiano, another trend to be recognized.

Notice anything interesting about these first four leaders in the freshman sire sweepstakes? Cross Traffic, Cairo Prince and Will Take Charge all come from the Unbridled sire line. Goldencents is the lone representative, in the top five, of the Storm Cat line which ruled sires’ lists for so long. There is no A.P. Indy line sire at all in the top ten of freshman sires. With American Pharoah’s first crop waiting in the wings to race in 2019, and Arrogate, also by Unbridled’s Song, having the first mares he covered selling at public auction, this trend appears likely to continue for the immediate future, thanks to his sons Unbridled’s Song and Empire Maker, and his grandsons and great grandsons. Last year, the leading freshman sires were Overanalyze, Violence, Take Charge Indy and Shanghai Bobby, in that order. Unbridled wasn’t represented at all in the top ten. Graydar could be found at number 15, the sole representative of today’s freshman sire leading sire line. That such a sea change should occur between 2017 and 2018 leads one to believe that the dominance of Fappiano and his champion son Unbridled, chronicled in these columns, is the real deal. We have seen the future, and it is Unbridled.

-- Roberta Smoodin