With the leading freshman sire race about to get underway for 2018, Will Take Charge looks like a natural to me. He’s about the handsomest stallion you will ever lay eyes on—he is mindbogglingly good looking, in a very masculine way, and has bone and conformation to spare. I loved him on the race track, and was knocked out when I saw him in person. I know Three Chimneys has put together a terrific inaugural book for him, and his yearlings sold very well last year. No other freshman class stallion of 2018 could touch him in terms of looks and race record. The only other stallion whose looks can compare, in my opinion, was Union Rags, and we all know how his first crop turned out, and continues to turn out. The 2019 freshman sire race surely is American Pharoah’s to lose (though Triple Crown winners have been hit and miss as sires—Seattle Slew vs Affirmed and Secretariat).

That said, we have, this year, two knockouts beginning their careers as stallions, Arrogate and Gun Runner, and it seems likely that they will duke it out for reigning freshman sire three years from now. The question is, which one will be more successful? Can we make a prediction based on pedigree, race record, and looks? Maybe not, but I’d sure like to try.

Arrogate and Gun Runner have similar stud fees—in the $70,000 to $75,000 range, not at all out of line for horses with their accomplishments. Both are from sire lines that have yet to prove themselves as lines that will have a continuing influence on the breed, like A.P. Indy and Storm Cat are certain to do. Unbridled’s Song was known for both his size and good looks and the huge variation in the ability of his runners—his good race horses were very good, and the rest were useful at best. Much like Secretariat, he seems destined to make a mark on the breed through his daughters, who have proven themselves to be outstanding broodmares. Nevertheless, Unbridled’s Song seems to me to be due to have a son hit, and the two most worthy inheritors are without doubt Will Take Charge and Arrogate.

Gun Runner hails from the same sire line as Arrogate, but through a totally separate branch of that tree. His great-grandsire is Fappiano, the same as Arrogate’s, but Gun Runner inherits his Fappiano through Cryptoclearance, a useful stallion but not nearly as influential as Unbridled, Arrogate’s grandpa. It’s worth noting that both Unbridled’s Song and Candy Ride have relatively undignified female families, that haven’t gotten much else besides these two exceptional stallions. Candy Ride, six years younger than the deceased Unbridled’s Song, has yet to get that outstanding son who will brand him as a sire of sires, though Misremembered, Sidney’s Candy and Twirling Candy have marked themselves as young stallions to keep an eye on. So the similarities between Arrogate and Gun Runner continue to multiply, and continue to raise doubt.

The answer may lie in the female families of each young stallion. Arrogate’s third dam is the wonderful Meadow Star, millionaire and Champion Two-Year-Old Filly, winner of 11 races at two and three including such Grade One wins as the Mother Goose S., Acorn S., Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Frizette S., Spinaway S., and Matron S. She was a great racehorse. And though she couldn’t reproduce anything like herself, much like my beloved Zenyatta as of now, she was the grandmother of millionaire and multiple Grade One winner Belle Gallantey, and the great-grandmother of Arrogate, so clearly the gene pool continues to produce. The key to Arrogate’s female family, however, remains hidden in Meadow Star’s dam, the In Reality mare Inreality Star, and in his dam’s great-great-grandfather, Mr. Prospector. Both of these reflect the same influences in Unbridled’s Song’s pedigree, and this doubling has been inordinately successful in breeding racehorses, most recently the also-gorgeous and also super-fast Liam’s Map. Though this echo of Mr. P and In Reality may account for Arrogate’s success on the track, does it insure his success at stud?

Juddmonte seems determined to see to that. They recently announced that such mares as Songbird, Paulassilverlining, Perfectforthpart, Lucas Street, Centre Court, Sortilege, Plum Pretty, She Be Wild and Lady of Fifty were in foal to their champ. With such broodmare sires as Ghostzapper, Medaglia d’Oro, Smart Strike, and various sons of Storm Cat represented in that list, Juddmonte’s superb expertise of pedigree would seem to give Arrogate an edge in the 2019 freshman sire contest. Never before has Juddmonte so aggressively acquired race mares, specifically to breed to Arrogate, with Paulasilverlining being the poster girl for that campaign, with her dose of In Reality, Mr. Prospector, and an added doubling of Deputy Minister. I can’t wait to see that foal race in the Juddmonte colors!

Gun Runner’s female family is also rife with great black type, coming, as he does, out of a graded stakes placed Giant’s Causeway dam, from the family of Horse of the Year Saint Liam, and with Flight Dancer as his fourth dam. The most interesting part of Gun Runner’s dams’ side is that the second dam, Quiet Dance, is by Quiet American, thereby doubling the Fappiano in his pedigree. A similar cross created Bernardini’s Grade One winner Greenpoint crusader, who is out of a Cryptoclearance mare, making him 4 x 3 Fappiano, through Quiet American and Cryptoclearance. Gun Runner is 3 x 3 Fappiano, and we know this cross has worked. Given the surfeit of In Reality blood in American bloodstock, Gun Runner seems poised to do well with mares that bring In Reality, in any form other than Fappiano, to the table. And both young stallions seem ideal for the addition of a touch of Nijinsky II.

With such similar race records (Breeders’ Cup Classic and Pegasus S. exacta to their credits) and similar earnings, one finds oneself looking for minutiae. Arrogate has La Troienne through Buckpasser; Gun Runner has Somethingroyal through Storm Cat. Arrogate has Northern Dancer through Danzig and Vice Regent; Gun Runner has him through Lyphard. Each beat the other in epic runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

I began writing this certain I would come to the conclusion that one of these magnificent beasts was clearly the better prospect to succeed when his first crop hits the track, but the more I study, the more this race becomes a dead heat in terms of my crystal ball. I prefer the Unbridled branch of the Fappiano tree to the Cryptoclearance branch, because, having seen both in the flesh, Unbridled had that heart-beating-faster factor, being huge and mighty and imperious, while Cryptoclearance didn’t. Does the look of eagles mean anything? Probably not. With the backing of the might Judddmonte broodmare band, including mares acquired specifically to breed to Arrogate, I’d have to give the slight edge to Arrogate, but, that said, I can’t wait to see examples of both of their first crops next fall.

-- Roberta Smoodin

Thanks to Thoroughbred People contributor and bloodstock consultant Roberta Smoodin for this article. Roberta offers pedigree analysis for sales and breeding recommendation services for your broodmares - please contact Roberta at [email protected] for more information.